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Today, many contracts in Shanghai aluminum have fallen to the limit, of which the main 1701 contract is sealed at 13555 yuan / ton on the limit board, mainly suppressed by the demand for aluminum price technical pullback
.
However, at present, the aluminum price is still effectively stabilized above the moving average group, and the technical form is strong
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1612 and 1701 contracts narrowed to 355 yuan / ton
.
External: Asian Lun aluminum high rise weak, pressure to fall, of which 3 months Lun aluminum fell 0.
78% to 1711 US dollars / ton, the current aluminum price from the October pullback low of 1608 US dollars / ton up 6.
4%, but its rise is still weaker than Shanghai aluminum, mainly suppressed by the strengthening of the US dollar, its lower technical support focus on 1700 US dollars / ton, the upper rebound resistance focus on the previous high of 1800 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index continued to fall under pressure and is now trading around 97.
4, as polls show that Trump's support rate has surpassed Hillary, increasing uncertainty about the November election in the United States, and the market is risk-aversion
.
However, in terms of economic data, the US ISM manufacturing index in October was 51.
9, better than expected at 51.
7 and the previous reading of 51.
5, combined with the improvement of China's October manufacturing PMI data, further validating the expansion of
global manufacturing activity.
Aluminum industry information, it is understood that high aluminum prices have greatly increased the production costs of enterprises, of which the profits of intermediate processing enterprises have been greatly reduced, and some downstream enterprises have recently reduced their purchase volume, mainly to digest their own inventory or purchase
on demand.
Market: On November 2, Shanghai spot aluminum trading concentrated 14530-14550 yuan / ton, the monthly premium 350-480 yuan / ton, because the aluminum month before noon all the way down, and the spot quotation is more stable, so the spot to the month premium back up, after the stop, Wuxi quotation concentrated 14480-14510 yuan / ton, Shanghai appeared 14450-14460 yuan / ton of individual low quotation
。 Before the drop limit, Shanghai Pu aluminum brand began to flow into the market, the circulation of goods increased compared with yesterday, Wuxi Hangzhou holders maintained stable shipments, the overall transaction is still concentrated in the downstream on-demand procurement, the holder panic breeds, the quotation began to be lowered, but the market wait-and-see mood is strong, almost no deal
.
During the day, the Shanghai aluminum 1701 contract fell under pressure to 13555 yuan / ton, due to the slight shift in the focus of short-term funds, Shanghai copper and Shanghai nickel performance was relatively resistant, and aluminum prices continued to rise after facing technical pullback demand, short-term chasing needs to be cautious
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract can be backed by 13,900 yuan below the sky, the entry reference is 13,700 yuan, and the lower support is 13,000 yuan / ton
.
