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On Thursday, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded, with a maximum of 15,885 yuan / ton, a minimum of 15,725 yuan / ton, and a close of 15,870 yuan / ton, down 0.
06% from the previous trading day's close; In the external market, LME aluminum rebounded slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1980 US dollars / ton, up 0.
58%
per day.
Market Focus: (1) The Fed minutes show that many officials at the meeting believe that the FOMC may want to immediately strengthen forward guidance
on the asset purchase program.
(2) U.
S.
jobless claims last week were 778,000, the highest level
in a month.
(3) China's electrolytic aluminum imports in October were 111,500 tons, down 35% from the previous month; From January to October, the total import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 867,000 tons
.
(4) As of November 26, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot stocks were 596,000 tons, down 13,000 tons
from Monday.
Spot analysis, on November 26, spot A00 aluminum reported 16110-16150 yuan / ton, the average price was 16130 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the market supply is relatively sufficient, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, the overall trading is not active, and the transaction is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 94,910 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 697 tons, down 8 consecutive days; On November 25, LME aluminum stocks were 1388250 tons, a daily decrease of 4,000 tons, a decline of 6 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2101 contract are 73141 lots, a daily increase of 5981 lots, short positions are 99619 lots, a daily increase of 12234 lots, a net short position of 26478 lots, a daily increase of 6253 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On November 26, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2101 rebounded
.
The US preliminary data increased further last week, indicating that the impact of the epidemic is still expanding, although the dollar index continued to be weak due to
vaccine benefits and US stimulus expectations.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum market demand maintained a good performance, and the opening of export arbitrage led to an increase in domestic outflow, domestic spot and Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts were declining, and the tight supply made the market willing to hold prices higher, supporting the high operation of aluminum prices
.
However, alumina prices continue to weaken, and the high profits of electrolytic aluminum production will stimulate the production capacity of aluminum plants to accelerate the launch, the pressure on the supply side will gradually increase, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices will weaken.
Technically, the main 2101 contract position of Shanghai aluminum has increased, and mainstream bears have increased their positions significantly, and it is expected that there will still be shocks
in the short term.
