Shanghai aluminum continues to rise Low inventories may continue to support prices

The latest aluminum ingot inventory data recorded 712,000 tons, down 07,000 tons from last week, and aluminum rods were also slightly destocked, and the overall destocking range was significantly narrower
than before.
From the institutional statistics of June aluminum operating rate, the overall month on month is still slightly improved, although June has gradually entered the off-season, but obviously the off-season is not light characteristics are obvious, from the recent order point of view, profiles and aluminum foil still continue the previous orders are better situation, strip is still weak, and cable due to the State Grid bidding slowdown and orders weakened, it is expected that the July operating rate will decline, but the decline or less than expected, continue the off-season is not light
.

On the supply side, Yunnan's production capacity continued to be released, entering the second half of the year, according to the production plan, the speed of capacity release was significantly faster than the first half of the year, while the import window continued to open, imported aluminum ingots continued to enter the domestic market, and the supply continued to rise
.

In terms of costs, alumina prices rebounded rapidly last week, spot market activity increased mid-week, traders switched from wait-and-see to market participation, the market atmosphere quickly recovered, while overseas transaction prices also maintained an upward trend
.
On the one hand, the driving force of the rise comes from the rise in aluminum prices, alumina has the demand for profit repair, on the other hand, the elastic announcement of production by large households last week has played a role in fueling the waves, in addition to the recent stabilization and rebound of bauxite
.
With the high price of aluminum and hitting a new high in recent years, it is
natural that the profits of the aluminum industry chain will be transmitted upward.
In terms of the height of the rebound, from a fundamental point of view, although demand continues to pick up, the supply shortage is limited, mainly due to the high stock of built capacity and the release of new production, while overseas imports continue to make up for it, so the rebound is highly limited, but the recent market is hot, superimposed on the impact of events, alumina prices are expected to rush back to more than
2600.

Although the current destocking range has narrowed significantly, the unfulfilled accumulation expectations have made the market bulls feel strong, especially the recent macro atmosphere is even more hot, driving asset prices to continue to rise
.
At present, aluminum consumption does have a trend of off-season, and the recovery of different sectors after the epidemic shows alternating rotation, so although the supply is rising steadily, inventory has not ushered in an inflection point, even if consumption continues to weaken in the third quarter, but from the perspective of accumulation, inventory is difficult to return to a high level
.
Short-term aluminum prices continue to be high due to macro sentiment and fundamental resonance, and medium-term low inventories may continue to support aluminum prices
.