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On Wednesday, the main 02 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,910 yuan / ton, up 0.
25%
from the previous trading day.
Aluminum prices fluctuated repeatedly, and the three-month aluminum price on the London Stock Exchange closed down 0.
28% to $2812 / ton
.
In terms of macro, under the tone of domestic policy stability and progress, the demand for electrolytic aluminum can be expected
in the medium and long term.
In addition, in the short term, the market's attitude towards the epidemic has been more optimistic in the near future, and the rise in crude oil prices has also driven aluminum prices to a
certain extent.
From a fundamental point of view, the domestic supply side is expected to increase
in December with the resumption of production in Yunnan.
On the cost side, alumina prices still maintained a slight decline, the decline in coal prices drove the average electricity cost of the industry downward, the profits of electrolytic aluminum enterprises were repaired, and the willingness to resume production may be enhanced
.
In terms of demand, in the context of aluminum processing enterprises making up for work and catching up for exports, the overall downstream operating rate is up
.
However, due to the poor new orders of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables, the processing fees of aluminum rods and aluminum rods have gradually declined, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum has gradually entered the off-season near the end of the year, and there is an expectation of marginal weakening of demand, or restrictions on the upward trend of aluminum prices
.
On Monday, the domestic social treasury fell by 25,000 tons from last Thursday to 839,000 tons, and in the short term, the de-treasury will remain unchanged, but the magnitude may slow down
.
On the whole, short-term aluminum prices continue to fluctuate upward, spot discounts have narrowed, and short-term aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong under the support of destocking
.
As the United States transports natural gas to Europe, short-term natural gas prices have fallen, and the European energy problem has weakened the boost to aluminum prices, but it still needs continued attention
.
In terms of supply strategy, the expected operating range is 19500-20500, and it is recommended to take advantage of the pullback to be much
lower.