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Today's Shanghai aluminum main contract 1703 continued to oscillate around 13350 yuan for the fifth consecutive day, with an intraday trading range of 13465-13270 yuan / ton, and closed at 13355 yuan / ton, up 0.
15% daily, and the upper rebound resistance focused on 13600 yuan / ton
.
At the same time, the positive price difference between Shanghai-aluminum 1702 and 1703 contracts remained at 70 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to rise has weakened
.
External: Asian Lun aluminum around 1800 US dollars / ton around narrow fluctuations, of which 3 months Lun aluminum slightly rose 0.
22% to 1821 US dollars / ton, the current Lun aluminum effectively stabilized above the moving average group, but in the past three weeks Lun aluminum has risen 7.
88%, its upper rebound resistance is concerned about 1850 US dollars / ton, short-term need to be wary of technical pullback possibility
.
Macro: The dollar index rose strongly overnight and is now trading around 101.
26, and the Asian dollar index rebounded slightly to around
101.
34 today.
Watch for the ECB's interest rate decision at 20:45 tonight, expect to keep interest rates unchanged, but pay attention to the press conference
held by Draghi at 21:30.
In addition, the market is also focused on tomorrow's Trump inauguration and China's economic performance throughout 2016
.
Aluminum industry information, "data release" World Metal Statistics Bureau (WBMS) latest report shows that from January to November 2016, the global aluminum market supply shortage of 970,000 tons, 2015 annual shortage of 551,000 tons, showing that the shortage has expanded significantly, due to the increase in global primary aluminum demand and the decline in production
.
From January to November, global primary aluminum consumption was 53.
58 million tons, an increase of 68,000 tons year-on-year; global primary aluminum production was 52.
61 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 210,000 tons
.
In terms of market: on January 19, Shanghai aluminum trading concentration was 13170-13190 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 110-90 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 13170-13190 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 13160-13180 yuan / ton
.
Smelters are selling at high prices, the market circulation is less, approaching the Spring Festival holiday, middlemen to clear inventory, reduce inventory for the holiday, downstream enterprises Spring Festival stocking is nearing the end, the willingness to receive goods has fallen, the overall transaction, the holder with the last opportunity of this week's downstream stocking quotation is strong, showing a state of supply and demand
.
Intraday Shanghai aluminum 1703 contract oscillation slightly rose to 13355 yuan / ton, its performance resisted the fall in copper nickel, showing that the intrinsic willingness of aluminum prices to fall is weak, Shanghai aluminum 1703 contract maintained a long idea, it is recommended to back 13150 yuan above the dip, the entry reference 13300 yuan, the target 13600 yuan
.
