Shanghai aluminum continued to be weak and volatile and its performance was relatively firm

Externally: Asian Lun aluminum around 1800 US dollars / ton around a narrow range, of which 3 months Lun aluminum slightly fell 0.
19% to 1814 US dollars / ton, the performance is much stronger than other base metals, the current Lun aluminum effectively stabilized above the average group, but in the past three weeks Lun aluminum has risen 7.
88%, its upper rebound resistance is concerned about 1850 US dollars / ton, short-term need to be vigilant of technical pullback possibility
.

Macro: Today's Asian dollar index extended its overnight decline and is now trading around
100.
89.
China's GDP for the whole year of 2016 grew by 6.
7% year-on-year, but the growth rate of fixed asset investment and industrial added value was slightly weaker than expected
.
At the same time, the market focuses on the official inauguration ceremony of US President-elect Trump at 1:00 tomorrow, and a series of policies
that may be introduced after that.
An Australian smelter operated by Alcoa will resume production after a major power outage, and the plant has received a government-initiated assistance program and the federal government will provide $30 million in funding
.
To ensure its operation for at least the next four years, AGL Energy will be responsible for the power supply
.

In terms of market: on January 20, Shanghai aluminum trading concentration was 13290-13300 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 50-20 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 13280-13290 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 13280-13300 yuan / ton
.
Although the inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 40,000 tons, smelters sold at a high price, traders reduced inventories have been basically completed, the market circulation source has further tightened, approaching the Spring Festival, the future-to-cash price difference narrowed, the willingness of middlemen to receive goods cooled, downstream enterprises stocking was basically completed, the demand for receiving goods weakened, and the overall transaction began to enter the pre-year track
.

Intraday Shanghai aluminum 1703 contract oscillation sorted out to 13335 yuan / ton, its performance resisted the fall of copper nickel, indicating that the intrinsic willingness of aluminum to fall is weak, Shanghai aluminum 1703 contract maintained a long idea, it is recommended to back 13150 yuan above the dip, entry reference 13300 yuan, target 13600 yuan
.