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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract oscillated higher, closing at 12765 yuan / ton, up 0.
79% from yesterday's closing price, the current Shanghai aluminum effectively stabilized above the moving average group, the technical form is stronger than other non-ferrous metals
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai-aluminum 1611 and 1612 contracts remained at 245 yuan / ton, indicating that the near-term contract was much stronger than the
forward.
Externally: Asian aluminum oscillation stabilized, of which 3-month Lun aluminum slightly rose 0.
39% to 1683 US dollars / ton, continuing the high oscillation finishing in the past two weeks, the current Lun aluminum is still stable above the moving average group, but the short-term Lun aluminum RSI indicator rose to the overbought area, need to be vigilant against the need for technical correction, short-term operating range to pay attention to 1710-1660 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index stabilized around 98, and U.
S.
crude oil futures fell 0.
54% under pressure, further cutting gains this week
.
China's exports fell 10 percent year-on-year in September, the sharpest drop in seven months, and imports fell 1.
9 percent year-on-year in September, also far worse than the previous reading and expectations, adding to fears of
a slowdown in China.
In terms of industry, China exported 390,000 tons of unprocessed aluminum and aluminum products in September, down 4.
87% month-on-month, but increased by 10.
61%
year-on-year.
From January to September, China's cumulative export of unprocessed aluminum and aluminum products was 3.
47 million tons, down 2.
53% year-on-year, indicating that the strengthening of anti-dumping and countervailing reviews of foreign exports to China's aluminum exports is not conducive to the increase
of aluminum exports.
In terms of market: on October 13, the Shanghai transaction concentration was 13300-13320 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 150-130 yuan / ton, the Wuxi transaction concentration was 13290-13310 yuan / ton, and the Hangzhou transaction concentration was 13340-13360 yuan / ton
.
The price difference in the month of the following month is still about 400 yuan / ton, and the willingness of the holders to exchange cash is still strong, resulting in a large discount for spot aluminum in the month, and the rise of aluminum in the month, and middlemen use the price difference of the discount to trade, and downstream purchases
on demand.
There are 2 days left before the month change, and the spot discount to the current month will still expand
until the price difference of the next month does not narrow.
The Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract oscillated as high as 12,765 yuan / ton during the day, and the performance was relatively resistant, but under the multiple pressures of aluminum prices continuing to rise, and the strong rebound of U.
S.
crude oil futures and China's poor trade data in September, Shanghai aluminum rose or weakened, and it is not suitable to chase more
in the short term.
It is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract can sell high and low between 12820-12600 yuan, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.
