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On Wednesday, the Shanghai aluminum main company 2005 contract opened at 12995 yuan / ton
in the morning.
Intraday long bears hesitated, the market performance in a narrow range, running in the range of 12930-12995 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 12935 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton, down 0.
39%.
The daily candlestick is below the main moving average group, and the bears increased their positions unilaterally by 698 lots to 149,000 lots
.
Under the background of weak macro fundamentals, it is expected that intraday volatility will run at 12800-13050 yuan / ton, and East China spot pair will be discounted 40 to 20 yuan / ton
in the month.
In the market, the price of Chinalco East China AOO aluminum ingots was 12840 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan
.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum production basically maintained stability, increasing the pressure of aluminum ingot accumulation, although the downstream has recovered, the volume of shipments has continued to rise recently, but the short-term is still a pattern of oversupply, and it is expected that spot aluminum prices will fall
today.
The country has orderly promoted the resumption of production, and aluminum downstream processing plants have basically resumed work, but the operating rate is only around 60%, and it will take some time
to return to normal levels.
The fermentation of overseas epidemics will have negative feedback
on exports.
The social inventory of aluminum ingots maintained a weekly growth rate of 100,000-150,000 tons to 1.
5 million tons, superimposed on the total inventory of aluminum factory warehouse, aluminum rod inventory and in-transit inventory has exceeded 2.
5 million tons, and the pressure of destocking is extremely great, and the market has not yet produced obvious marginal changes
.
Under the dual pressure of macro and industry, it is recommended that Shanghai Aluminum maintain the idea of rebound and short
selling.
