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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate
weakly.
News of the variant virus at the beginning of the week continued to weigh on industrial products, and crude oil hit a three-month low
.
The fundamental changes in the aluminum market are limited, the spot discount remains at 100 yuan, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the outbound warehouse has picked up
.
Supply continues to be constrained, and year-end inventories have room to decline, but still significantly higher than in the past two years
.
The willingness of funds to enter is weak, and Shanghai aluminum may continue to fluctuate
.
Fundamentally, the overall operating capacity has not changed much, and under the influence of environmental protection factors and the dual control task requirements of energy consumption in the Winter Olympics, it is expected that it will be difficult for the northern region to resume large-scale production before the end of the heating season
.
Holders on the consumer side shipped goods at high prices, and receivers actively entered the market, and the overall transaction was cold
.
The recent outbound data performance is acceptable, the aluminum rod processing fee is running at a high level, the real estate sector has picked up marginally, and the demand side has recovered, but it is still lower than the same period last year, and considering the impact of heating season production restrictions and environmental protection requirements, it is expected that demand will not improve significantly during the year
.
Near the heating season and the Winter Olympics, Henan, Shanxi, Shandong, Inner Mongolia upstream alumina enterprises and downstream aluminum processing enterprises have received the heating season production restriction notice
.
Affected by a new round of global epidemic outbreak, Shanghai aluminum closed Friday
.
However, as domestic consumption improves, inventories gradually turn to destocking, and there is still some support
below aluminum prices.
In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to show a volatile pattern
.
