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Aluminum market afternoon comment: oil prices fell heavily, and Lun aluminum closed down 0.
86% overnight; German aluminum companies were forced to reduce production capacity by 50%, but the large increase in aluminum inventory suspended supply concerns, and the domestic downstream consumption performance was insufficient, and aluminum was expected to rise
slightly.
On the macro front, the dollar index remained high on expectations of interest rate hikes and the weakness of non-US currencies, putting pressure
on non-ferrous metals.
Domestically, the recent real estate stimulus policies have been frequent again, but the current market willingness to buy houses has not shown significant improvement, the strength of real estate repair remains to be seen, and there is still downward pressure
on the macro level.
On the supply side, the impact of power cuts on production is gradually fading, the supply of aluminum plants is gradually recovering, and many enterprises are actively implementing capacity replacement, but it is necessary to pay attention to the hydropower situation
in Yunnan.
In terms of downstream demand, it is still in a weak state, and the demand performance is average
.
In terms of inventory, LME inventories continued to rise, and domestic social inventories rose slowly, confirming poor demand
.
Overall, the negative drag on the supply side is gradually weakening, overseas macro recession expectations are rising again, coupled with the continued weakening of domestic demand, it is difficult to have a substantial repair in the short term, and it is expected that aluminum prices will have limited space for rebound
.
