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Russian wheat spotlight: Russian wheat prices stopped falling and rebounded

 Last Update: 2022-09-20
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Wheat export prices imports

Moscow-based consultancy IKAR said that as of last Friday (September 2), the FOB price of Russia's 12.
5% protein at the Black Sea port was $312 per ton, up $2 from a week ago
.

Domestic wheat prices in Russia continued to rise
last week.
Domestically produced third-class wheat was quoted at 12,250 rubles per ton, up 275 rubles
from a week ago.

Port data cited by another Moscow-based consultancy, SoveEcon, showed Russia exported 640,000 tonnes of grain last week, compared to 760,000 tonnes
the week before.
SovEcon expects Russian cereal exports to rise to 4.
95 million tonnes in September, up from 4.
2 million tonnes
in August.

Russia's Ministry of Agriculture recently said it would export up to 30 million tonnes of grain
in the second half of 2022.

Russian wheat production expectations are raised again

On September 12, IKAR expects Russian wheat production to be a record 97 million tonnes in 2022, up from a forecast of 95 million tonnes
on Aug.
8.
Russian wheat exports are expected to be raised to 46 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 44 million tons
.

On September 12, the USDA raised Russia's 2022/23 wheat production forecast by 3 million tons, from an earlier forecast of 88 million tons to 91 million tons, an increase of 21.
1%
from 75.
16 million tons from the previous year.
Russian wheat exports for 2022/23 are expected to reach a record 42 million tonnes, unchanged
from last month's forecast.

On August 16, SovEcon forecasts Russia's wheat production in 2022 at a record 94.
7 million tonnes, up from an earlier estimate of 90.
9 million tonnes
.

Russian farmers have harvested 86.
9 million tonnes of wheat

Data released by the Russian government shows that as of September 8, russia's total cereal harvest production was 126.
5 million tons, compared with 117.
9 million tons a week ago, compared with 96 million tons
in the same period last year.

Russia has harvested 92.
7 million tonnes of wheat so far, up from 86.
9 million tonnes a week ago and 69.
3 million tonnes
a year ago.
Russian farmers start harvesting winter wheat
in July.

Russian wheat yields rose to 3.
83 tonnes per hectare this year, up from 2.
92 tonnes/ha
in the same period last year.

Last week's weather in Russia was mostly dry, and this week there will be rain
in the southern, central and Volga regions of Russia.
Russian farmers have sown 4.
8 million hectares of winter 2023 cereals, up from 2.
5 million hectares a week ago, but still below the 5.
4 million hectares
sown in the same period in 2021.

Tariffs were lowered

From September 14 to September 20, 2022, the tariff on Russian wheat exports was 2,962.
9 rubles (about $50)
per ton.
This compares to 3,368.
9 rubles (about $55.
89)
per ton between September 7 and September 13.

For comparison, before the ruble-denominated export tax was first implemented in July, the wheat export tax from June 29 to July 5 was $146.
10/ton
.

Wheat sellers in Russia usually price their exports in US dollars and buy wheat
in rubles on the domestic market.
The recent sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate and reduced convertibility have made the calculation of export tariffs more complicated
.
From July, Russia's Ministry of Agriculture used rubles to price wheat export tariffs and set the base price of wheat at 15,000 rubles instead of the previous $
200 per ton.
The base price of barley and maize exports was also changed from $185/ton to 13,875 rubles
.

The ruble rose 1.
3% in the past week

On Tuesday, the Russian ruble was trading at $59.
7 to $1, up 1.
3 percent
from a week ago.

In recent weeks, the ruble exchange rate has hovered around 60 rubles
.
On February 23 (before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict), the ruble approached 80 against the dollar, then fell to an all-time low of $121.
53 against the dollar in early March, before soaring all the way to a new seven-year high
of $50.
01 against $1 in June.
The strong exchange rate of the ruble has raised concerns among Russian policymakers and exporters, as a strong ruble could weaken exporters' sales revenues
.
The ruble remains the world's strongest performing currency
so far this year.

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