Rubber rushed back down and futures prices fluctuated to close higher

News: 1.
In the first half of 2020, the export volume of Indonesian sky rubber and mixed rubber decreased
year-on-year.
2.
In the first half of 2020, Vietnam's mixed rubber exports to China increased by 1.
4%
year-on-year.
3.
In the first half of 2020, Thailand's exports of sky rubber decreased year-on-year, while the export of mixed rubber increased by more than 50%.

4.
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) protested
the anti-dumping investigation of US tires.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 18-year state-owned full latex reported 11100 (+350) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 11200 (+300) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 cigarette film reported 13450 (+350) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1270 (+0) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 September cargo reported 1280 (+10) US dollars / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market field glue 41.
4 (+0.
5) baht/kg; Cup gum 32.
2 (+0.
1) baht/kg
.
Domestic Yunnan Xishuangbanna glue into the dry rubber factory 9.
6-9.
9 yuan / kg, into the latex factory 10 yuan / kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber in North China 1502 market price 7600 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 7700 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 224340 tons, - 2660 tons; NR warehouse receipt 34201 tons, - 203 tons
.

Main positions: RU2009 top 20 long positions 70346, - 2686; short positions 93988, - 7328; long and short with reduction, net space reduction
.

Summary: From the current fundamental point of view, the current Banna rubber tapping overall tends to normal, but the situation of less raw materials still exists, the competition between processing plants for raw material procurement is obvious, latex diversion part of the dry rubber production capacity, the current alternative planting indicators Puer, Xishuangbanna has announced the quota, it is reported that the indicator is more likely to be issued on August 10, when the domestic supply tension is expected to be eased
.
The production capacity of new rubber in the Thai production area has been released, and the raw materials in the production area are also gradually increasing
.
In terms of inventory, as of July 17, the inventory inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to accumulate, and it was difficult to destock rubber during the peak supply season
.
In the downstream, there is still uncertainty in overseas epidemic control, and it is difficult for export orders to increase significantly in the short term; The domestic replacement market is in the seasonal off-season, and the market competition is fierce, and it is difficult to grow short-term sales
.
From the terminal point of view, the sales volume of heavy trucks is good, and the performance of tire supporting demand in the later period is expected to be better
driven by infrastructure.
Rubber fundamentals have not changed much recently, price fluctuations are more from capital and market sentiment disturbance, intraday RU2009 contract sharply soared and then fell back, short-term focus on support around 10800, it is recommended to trade in the 10800-11000 range, NR2010 contract is recommended to trade
in the 8900-9100 range.