Rubber prices continue to fluctuate range-bound and lack of upward momentum

This week (June 27-July 1), the main trend of domestic natural rubber (standard one) in China's East China market showed a volatile trend of going up and down and then up: the mainstream of the domestic market on Monday was about 12870 yuan / ton, and the main report on Friday was 12954 yuan / ton, up 0.
65%
for the week.
Among them, the highest point of this month's price is 12954 yuan / ton on Friday, and the lowest point is 12854 yuan / ton on June 30, with a maximum amplitude of 0.
78%.

On June 30, the price of international crude oil futures fell
.
The main contract of U.
S.
WTI crude oil futures settled at $105.
76 per barrel, down $4.
02 or 3.
7%; The main contract for Brent crude futures settled at $109.
03 a barrel, down $3.
42 or 3.
04%.

Oil prices came under pressure
as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) confirmed that their August production increases were in line with previous announcements, and supply tightness expectations eased slightly.

On the supply side, the supply of Southeast Asian production areas continued to increase, the output of Yunnan production area in China increased steadily, Hainan's output increased and increased, processing plants resumed operation, and the purchase price of local raw materials fell, even falling by about
3,000 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, the current import volume is not large, and domestic stocks have deteriorated
slightly.
Demand side: It is reported that the operating rate of all-steel tires has recently decreased week-on-week, while semi-steel tires have rebounded week-on-week, and the average operating rate of semi-steel and all-steel tires in June is higher than that in May, which is also slightly lower
in the fourth week.
The inventory of finished tires is high, and the purchase volume of raw material rubber has not improved much; Downstream vehicle production and sales increased
sequentially.

In terms of import and export, since late June, the source of imported goods has increased significantly, especially the arrival of Vietnamese rubber has increased significantly, resulting in the price of Vietnamese rubber falling significantly faster than Thai rubber
.
Statistics show that the import volume of natural latex from January to June 2022 was about 240,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34,500 tons, down about
12.
34%.
Among them, the main domestic import ports latex spot shortage is serious, the price is extremely high, the current Thai imported latex barrels are as high as 16000-16500 yuan / ton, the shortage of goods leads to more chaotic market quotations; The stubbornness of downstream manufacturers on the brand has led to a very high price of similar Hong Manli tobacco sheet glue, while ignoring the market price advantage
of brand glue such as Lianyi and Taihua.

At present, with the improvement of the control of public health events, the improvement of the domestic economy and the boosting effect of policies such as automobile consumption, the demand for downstream tire and product factories will gradually improve, but with the continuous increase in supply, it is expected that the natural rubber market is likely to continue to fluctuate in range, and the momentum for a sharp upward movement is still insufficient
.