Rubber is expected to continue to rebound but the upward drive is insufficient

On Monday, the main RU closed at 14760 (+270) yuan / ton, the mixed rubber quotation was 13025 yuan / ton (+150), and the main contract basis was -1110 yuan / ton (-120); The top 20 main long positions are 95934 (-8), short positions are 138422 (-1832), and net short positions are 42488 (-1824).

NR main closing price of 11470 (+170) yuan / ton, Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai standard rubber 1750 (-25) US dollars / ton, Malaysian standard rubber 1740 US dollars / ton (-45), Indonesian standard rubber 1780 (-20) US dollars / ton
.
The basis of the main contract is -246 (-40) yuan / ton
.

Weather in the production area, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in November 2021 was 12.
5, an increase of 5.
8 month-on-month, and the impact of La Niña increased
again.
At present, the domestic Yunnan production area has entered the suspension period, and the eastern Hainan production area may be stopped in mid-to-late December; Recently, rainfall in southern Thailand and central Vietnam has decreased significantly, and raw material output has increased
.

Due to the surge in freight rates in Southeast Asia, there is an expectation that the December shipping schedule will continue to be delayed, and the accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao is expected to continue to be delayed
.
The significant increase in sea freight on European and American routes will also make China's tire export pressure prominent
.
Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire factories fell slightly month-on-month, because the order situation was not optimistic, the pressure on finished product inventory increased, the foreign trade orders of tire factories in December were expected to shrink, and the replacement of domestic terminals was gradually coming to an end, coupled with the obvious increase in factory raw material inventory, tire factories may slow down the procurement process of tianjiao
.

With the reduction of rain in Thailand's main producing areas last week, the price of raw materials fell significantly, resulting in the weakening of the support of rubber costs last week, and the pressure of the arbitrage market made the futures price fall after the superimposed spot price spread widened
.
This week, with the recovery of the domestic macro atmosphere and the lower support of domestic raw material prices, rubber prices are expected to stop falling and rebound, and it is expected that prices are expected to continue to rebound, but due to the general performance of demand and the resumption of pressure on finished product inventories in tire factories, the upward driving force is insufficient
.