Rubber intraday volatility intensified, closing slightly lower at the end of the day

News: 1.
According to Longzhong statistics, as of the week of July 9, the operating rate of semi-steel tire sample manufacturers was 66.
64%, down 1.
31% month-on-month and 3.
55% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 71.
16%, down 0.
23%
from the previous month.
It decreased by 0.
41%
year-on-year.
2.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: Automobile production and sales in June reached a new high
in the same period of the previous year.
3.
Passenger car production: June narrow passenger car production increased by 13.
1% year-on-year, while retail sales fell by 6.
2%.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 18 years state-owned full latex reported 10450 (-50) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 10900 (+0) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 12900 (-50) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 warehouse spot reported 1270 (+20) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 July cargo reported 1260 (+10) US dollars / ton
.
Thailand Hat Yai raw material market field glue 41.
5 (+0.
2) baht/kg; Cup gum 32.
1 (+0) baht/kg
.
Domestic Yunnan Xishuangbanna glue is 9.
5-9.
8 (+0/+0) yuan/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 in North China Market price 8000 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 8200 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 230170 tons, + 800 tons; NR warehouse receipts 44,020 tons, - 403 tons
.
Main positions: RU2009 top 20 long positions 83460, -1748; short positions 130217, -2530; long and short reduction, net short reduction
.

Summary: From the current fundamental point of view, the current output of Banna raw materials is stable and upward, some areas have returned to normal levels, and it is heard that alternative planting raw materials are likely to enter in late July, and domestic supply has increased
significantly in the later period.
The production capacity of new rubber in the Thai production area has been released, and the raw materials in the production area are also gradually increasing
.
In terms of inventory, as of July 10, the inventory inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has accumulated slightly, and it is difficult to destock rubber during the peak supply season
.
In the downstream, the operating rate of the domestic tire market fell slightly month-on-month last week, and the rainy season had an impact on the domestic tire market in Shandong; At present, the volume of export orders has increased, but due to the many uncertainties in the foreign epidemic, the continuity of export sales growth is still difficult to determine
.
In addition, some companies usually arrange maintenance in July and August, which will affect the overall operating rate
from time to time.
From the terminal point of view, the sales volume of heavy trucks is good, and the performance of tire supporting demand in the later period is expected to be better
driven by infrastructure.
Recently, the supply and demand fundamentals of Tianjiao are relatively stable, the futures price is greatly affected by the stock market and crude oil market, RU2009 contract continues to run sideways, short-term focus on pressure around 10750, it is recommended to trade in the 10500-10750 range, NR2009 contract is recommended to trade
in the 8700-9100 range.