Rubber highs continue to fall back waiting for further clear guidance from the market

In December, the southern production areas of Thailand ushered in the peak production season, and the changes in rainfall in the production areas had a direct impact
on the rubber tapping process and raw material output.
This year's double-peaked La Niña is a foregone conclusion, and the latest data released by the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently showed that the probability of La Niña continuing into winter has reached 90%, and the probability of developing in spring 2022 is 50%.

The arrival of La Niña in winter will not only bring an unusually large amount of precipitation to Southeast Asia, but also increase the probability
of cold and large cooling in the northern hemisphere.
The continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia is the best proof of this, under normal circumstances, the rainy season in the region is generally from May to September every year, but the precipitation in the region is at a high level from October to November this year, which has caused some resistance
to natural rubber tapping activities.

This week, as the weather in southern Thailand improved, raw material output increased significantly, and glue prices continued to fall, but they were still at a high level
compared with the same period of previous years.
In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the weather conditions in the main producing areas, and if abnormal rainfall or cold wave events occur, which will have an impact on the production of tianjiao, it may provide a new round of speculation opportunities for the market and boost the price of
rubber.

In terms of news:

1.
According to the latest data from QinRex, the export volume of Ivory Coast Tianjiao in November was 106,011 tons, an increase of 18.
4% and 0.
9%
respectively year-on-month.
In the first 11 months, the country's exports totaled 1,040,930 tonnes, up 6.
6%
from 976,151 tonnes in the same period of 2020.

2.
According to the latest data from QinRex, Thailand's Minister of Industry Suriya revealed that he is deeply pleased with the continued recovery of the automotive industry on the support of domestic and export markets, as well as increased investment, and estimates that automobile manufacturing will increase by 15% in 2021 and is expected to exceed 1.
7 million vehicles
in 2022.

In the short term, the current price of tianjiao has been close to the lower edge of the range, because the domestic mixed rubber inventory is still in the decline channel, supporting its spot price is relatively firm, it is expected that the downward space of tianjiao in the future market may be limited
.
In the medium and long term, paying attention to La Niña dynamics and domestic arrivals, Tianjiao generally maintained more expectations, waiting for further clear guidance from the market
.