Rubber contracts rushed back down and futures prices closed slightly higher

News: 1.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of the week of July 16, the operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers was 65.
46%, down 1.
18% month-on-month and 4.
73% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 71.
16%, stable month-on-month, down 0.
26%
year-on-year.
2.
In the first half of 2020, Vietnam's mixed rubber exports to China increased by 1.
4%
year-on-year.
3.
Bureau of Statistics: China's tire production in June increased slightly by 0.
5%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 18-year state-owned full latex reported 10600 (+100) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 10900 (+0) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 13000 (+100) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1265 (+10) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 July cargo reported 1265 (+10) US dollars / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market field glue 40.
9 (+0) baht/kg; Cup gum 31.
85 (-0.
25) baht/kg
.
Domestic Yunnan Xishuangbanna glue is 9.
5-9.
9 (+0/+0.
1) yuan / kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber in North China 1502 market price 7800 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 7900 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 223610 tons, + 270 tons; NR warehouse receipts 38,658 tons, - 1,007 tons
.
Main positions: RU2009 top 20 long positions 81892, +1376; short positions 124685, +981; long and short increased, net space decreased
.

Summary: From the current fundamental point of view, the overall trend of Banna rubber tapping tends to be normal, and the cutting rate can reach about 70% in previous years, but the situation of small raw materials still exists; The raw materials in the Hainan production area have begun to increase one after another, to a certain extent, easing the rubber collection situation of processing plants, and I heard that the entry of alternative planting raw materials will be postponed to August, and the domestic supply will continue to grow
in the later period.
The production capacity of new rubber in the Thai production area has been released, and the raw materials in the production area are also gradually increasing
.
In terms of inventory, as of July 17, the inventory inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to accumulate, and it was difficult to destock rubber during the peak supply season
.
In the downstream, there is still uncertainty in overseas epidemic control, and it is difficult for export orders to increase significantly in the short term; The domestic market is affected by the concentrated rain in the south, the shipment of replacement tires, the current inventory of most tire manufacturers is high, coupled with the arrival of the high temperature power rationing season, the short-term operating rate or a slight decline.

From the terminal point of view, the sales volume of heavy trucks is good, and the performance of tire supporting demand in the later period is expected to be better
driven by infrastructure.
Recently, rubber fundamentals have not changed much, price fluctuations are more from capital and market sentiment disturbance, intraday RU2009 contract rushed back down, short-term recommended to trade in the 10500-10900 range, NR2009 contract recommended to trade
in the 8500-8900 range.