Rising steadily will become the mainstream of wheat market development

Introduction: new page 1 -- the future of domestic wheat market At present, the domestic wheat price still keeps a stable running trend Up to the end of April, the industry has paid close attention to the price trend of the later domestic wheat market According to the development environment of the domestic wheat market, the wheat price is expected to fluctuate in the short term After the market is readjusted, the steady rise will become the mainstream of the market development In this regard, according to the impact on China's wheat market, the author The main factors of the field are analyzed as follows: ta9 (1) factors supporting the wheat market: ta9 1, wheat planting area decreased again in 2003 Ta9 in recent months, domestic grain prices generally rose, mainly due to seasonal reasons But corn and wheat prices are still less than 5% higher than last year The government continues to be keen on export subsidies, and the relatively stable price situation means that China's grain market has not changed much China's grain stockpile is still huge, and the country will consider appropriate measures to operate before they reduce it to an acceptable level The temperature of winter grain is lower than that of previous years Because of the cold climate in spring, it hinders the growth of crops In addition, as reported in the past, the total area of wheat will decline again this year, it is reported as high as 5% Ta9 due to the adjustment of planting structure, comparison of planting economic benefits and other reasons, according to the report of the national grain and oil information center, it is estimated that the total sown area of wheat in 2003 will be 22.3 million hectares, down 5.11% compared with the same period of last year, which is the fourth year in which the national wheat planting area has been continuously reduced The average yield per hectare is expected to be 3950 kg, with a year-on-year growth of 2.25% Among them, the winter wheat output is expected to be 80.59 million tons, down 2.96% year-on-year; the planting area will be reduced to 20.4 million hectares, down 5.12% year-on-year; the spring wheat planting area is expected to be 1.9 million hectares, and the output is expected to be 5.8 million tons TA 92 The drought was common in autumn and winter sowing season in 2002, and the growth of winter wheat was not good Due to the drought and less rain in the main winter wheat producing areas of China in autumn and winter of 2002, coupled with the high cost of artificial irrigation, due to the value-benefit ratio, farmers' insufficient investment in drought resistance and poor moisture content, leading to the phenomenon of lack of seedlings, broken ridges and insufficient tillering, the seedling condition is relatively weak The drought in Shandong, Yunnan, Sichuan and Guizhou has not been fundamentally alleviated, which makes the growth of winter wheat seedlings generally worse than last year In addition, the diseases and insect pests in some main wheat producing areas are also serious, which will have an impact on the wheat production in China this year It is predicted that the winter wheat output will be further reduced in 2003, and the pattern of oversupply of wheat market will be improved Ta9 3 The number of domestic wheat stocks has been reduced year after year ta9 due to the decrease of wheat planting area, the decrease of production and the increase of consumption, the number of domestic wheat stocks has been reduced year after year It is estimated that in 2002 / 03 (July / June), China's wheat harvest area was 23.5 million hectares, the initial inventory was 83.608 million tons, the output was 91 million tons, and the total annual import volume of the market was 50 The total supply is 175.08 million tons, the total export is 1.2 million tons, the domestic feed consumption is 12 million tons, the domestic consumption is 105 million tons, and the ending inventory is 68.908 million tons It is estimated that in 2003 / 04 (July / June), China's wheat harvest area was 22.8 million hectares, the beginning inventory was 68.908 million tons, the output was 88 million tons, the market annual import volume was 500000 tons, the total supply volume was 157.40 million tons, the total export volume was 1.2 million tons, the domestic feed consumption volume was 12 million tons, the domestic consumption volume was 104 million tons, and the ending inventory volume was 52.208 million tons Ten thousand tons According to the latest forecast of the US Department of agriculture, the global inventory forecast at the end of 2002 / 03 is 31 million tons less than that of the previous year, which is 167 million tons China's inventory dropped the most, reaching 16 million tons China's wheat production has been lower than consumption, and its inventory has declined significantly in the past three years But China's wheat stocks are huge Even if they are reduced, they are still huge and the storage cost is high China's wheat prices rose slightly in stability, proving that supply is still sufficient Due to the drought in the United States, the forecast value of wheat end of the period was lowered by 9 million tons Due to the severe impact of drought in Australia, wheat stocks have been reduced by 5 million tons Canada has been hit by drought for the second year in a row, but its inventory forecast for 2002 / 03 is expected to be reduced by only 500000 tons due to a significant decline in inventories It is predicted that the international wheat market in 2002 / 2003 will not be in short supply In early April, the average FOB Gulf export price of second-class hard red winter wheat in the United States was 142 US dollars / ton, down 6 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month, down 59 US dollars / ton compared with the highest price of 201 US dollars / ton in early September In the first half of 2003, the cost of imported wheat was still high, and the quantity of imported wheat increased slowly Ta9 5 The domestic wheat export keeps good momentum In 2002, China's wheat import quota was 8.468 million tons According to the data provided by the General Administration of customs, China's total wheat import in 2002 was only 604600 tons, while its export was 688000 tons, an increase of 51.4% and its net export was 83000 tons It is expected that this good momentum will continue this year According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China's wheat export in March was 117349 tons, an increase of 647% over the same period last year The total export volume from January to March this year was 254696 tons, an increase of 51% year on year At the same time, according to the analysis of relevant experts, although China's wheat tariff quota will increase to 9.05 million tons this year, due to the limited increase in the world's main wheat production and domestic production, the wheat price in the international market is expected to remain at a high level, so it is expected that the wheat import will not increase much, and China's wheat export situation will continue to be optimistic Although the proportion of domestic wheat export is very small at present, the increasing export volume will effectively drive the domestic wheat price higher The demand of flour processing enterprises for high quality wheat will continue to increase Ta9 in recent years, China's grain planting structure has been continuously adjusted In 2003, China's wheat planting area will be reduced, but the area of high-quality wheat is expected to continue to grow, so the overall quality of domestic wheat is expected to be improved According to the report of the Ministry of agriculture, the sown area of domestic wheat in 2003 / 04 market year (July June) is expected to decrease by about 5% compared with the previous year, but the output of high-quality wheat is expected to increase, because the government takes measures to increase the output of high-quality wheat and correspondingly reduce the area of common wheat As the price gap between high-quality wheat and common wheat is widening, flour companies will gradually increase the purchase of high-quality wheat in order to increase sales profits Ta9 (2) the factors that restrain the wheat market: Although there are many factors that promote the domestic wheat market and the market price is rising steadily, there are still many factors that restrain the low price in the market The specific situation is as follows: ta9 1 Although the wheat stock has been used for years, the wheat stock in China is still at a high level, 2003 The contradiction of structural oversupply still exists Ta9 2 There is a large amount of aged grain in China, and the pressure on the market caused by the rotation of aged grain still exists Ta9 3 In 2003, China's grain market will not be fully liberalized It is expected that the scope of wheat protection price will be further narrowed and the level of protection price will continue to be lowered In the second half of 2003, the price of wheat in the international market will fall, the import of wheat in China will increase, and the export of wheat for flour production will be adversely affected It is difficult to control SARS in a short period of time, which affects the collection of feed materials in feed processing enterprises Ta9 to sum up, China's wheat market in 2003 was mainly stable before May and June, with a slight decline After that, it will be mainly stable and rising, but the range will not be too large As a whole, it will continue to be stable and rising Ta9