Rice situation and prospect in China

Introduction: 1 Situation and Prospect: the rice planting area and yield of JFV in 2001 market year (January to December) decreased in China It is estimated that the sown area and yield of rice decreased by 5.7% and 4.4% respectively It is expected that the rice planting area and yield will also decrease in 2002 market year (January December) But provincial officials expect fewer falls in acreage In addition, the decline in yield was also reduced due to the use of improved hybrid rice varieties to increase the unit yield It is reported that the wholesale prices of Indica and Japonica Rice rose last year The reason for the price increase is the reduction of rice production in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin The report also shows an increase in total rice consumption The largest increase was in feed and industrial consumption The decline of production and the increase of consumption affect the stock of Chinese farmers and state-owned rice Officials did not report inventory levels But China's rice stocks are estimated to have fallen by about 35 million tons in the past two years Although rice stocks have declined substantially, a provincial official said it would take two to three years for China's rice stocks to decline to the extent that they need to be imported or some regions need to be imported In the fourth quarter of the market year of JFV 2001, China joined the world trade organization, and rice became a kind of grain with tariff quota China's National Development Planning Commission recently announced Interim Measures for tariff quota distribution and implementation measures for tariff quota distribution in 2002 1% import tariff shall be applied to rice imported within the tariff quota And since 2002, China has changed and increased the tariff code of rice In 2001, China's rice imports increased by about 22.9% over the same period last year Almost all imported rice comes from Thailand It is expected that high quality rice will continue to be imported from Thailand in 2002 But government officials and importers do not expect to run out of rice import quotas in 2002 In 2001, rice exports fell by 36.9% Tight supply and restrictions on the use of export subsidies lead to the expected decline in rice exports in 2002, but the decline is lower JFV 2、 Supply and demand expectation: it is estimated that China's rice harvest area in 2001 market year (January December) is 2996.2 hectares, the beginning inventory is 98.5 million tons, the refined rice output is 131.536 million tons, the brown rice output is 18790.9 million tons, the total import volume is 225000 tons, the total supply volume is 230261 million tons, the total export volume is 1.8 million tons, the total domestic consumption volume is 13433.6 million tons, and the ending inventory volume is 94.125 million tons It is estimated that China's rice harvest area in 2002 market year (January December) is 2820 hectares, the initial inventory is 94.125 million tons, the output of refined rice is 126 million tons, the output of brown rice is 180 million tons, the total import is 8.05 million tons, the total supply is 209.25 million tons, the total export is 2 million tons, the total domestic consumption is 134.61 million tons, and the final inventory is 84.315 million tons It is estimated that China's rice harvest area is 2750 hectares in 2003 market year (January December), the initial inventory is 84.315 million tons, the refined rice output is 124 million tons, the brown rice output is 17714.3 million tons, the total import volume is 1 million tons, the total supply volume is 209.31.5 million tons, the total export volume is 2 million tons, the total domestic consumption volume is 134.5 million tons, and the final inventory volume is 72.815 million tons JFV 3 Review: 1 Yield: in recent years, the main reason for the decline of rice planting area in China is due to China's structural adjustment in response to its accession to the world trade organization, and the government's reduction in the number of acquisitions In recent years, the decline of rice production is mainly concentrated in the middle of China and Northeast China Now these areas suffer from water shortage and rice planting area will continue to decrease in the future Media reports say Beijing has set up a plan to turn rice producing areas into drought resistant crops It is expected that other regions with low quality rice production will imitate Beijing Farmers grow more high-quality rice, which leads to higher per unit yield In addition, the use of agricultural chemicals and fertilizers increased rice yield per unit area The increase of per unit yield led to a small increase in rice production in Guangdong Province and Sichuan Province in southern China But this is an increase on the basis of a decline in rice production over the past two years The output of other rice producing areas in China has declined as a whole due to the decrease in the sown area There are signs that China will produce high-quality rice in more provinces and cities, so the overall yield will increase Up to now, it is estimated that the sown area of high-quality rice accounts for more than half of the total rice area in China In 2001, China completed the research of rice genome, which is conducive to the cultivation of new and higher quality hybrid rice in the future Government officials also want to reduce the cost of chemicals and improve the quality of rice by changing its genome JFV 2 Consumption: the government's analysis shows that China's rice consumption is increasing On the whole, the biggest increase is consumption Last year, the consumption of rice feed increased rapidly This growth is expected to continue in the future as China's animal and livestock industries are expanding In addition, the increase in the cost of other feed materials and the relatively low price of low-quality rice will attract small-scale livestock breeders or household livestock breeders to increase rice as feed Many livestock keepers know that the nutritional value of rice feed is low, but they have to rely on available sources and low prices The decrease of consumption is mainly due to the decrease of rice seed consumption Because of the decrease of sowing area and the improvement of hybrid rice seed quality JFV the rice produced in Guangdong Province is mainly indica rice It is estimated that the rice seed consumption is about 30 kg / ha Jiangsu Province mainly produces japonica rice, and the estimated consumption of rice seeds is 37-60 kg / ha Most rice producers use rice seeds stored at home, but farmers who produce hybrid rice need to buy from seed suppliers The two provincial government officials allow more seeds to be consumed than necessary, but the farmers can use the seeds stored in the family or purchase relatively cheap seeds, and the production return will be higher than the production input There seems to be no report that genetically modified rice seeds are used to produce in these provinces The government rarely buys low-quality rice from farmers In the past, farmers were able to pay annual land taxes through food Many provinces now require farmers to pay land taxes in cash or allow them to choose between paying in cash or paying in grain Farmers must produce high-quality rice or other grain for sale in open markets, or store low-quality rice and grain for household use JFV 3 Stock: China's rice stock is still at a high level, but in the past two years, the government has reported that the rice stock is declining The analysis shows that the rice stock can guarantee the sufficient supply in the next 2-3 years at least The inventory is divided into three levels Most of the stocks continue to be low-quality rice The government is still trying to replace low-quality rice stocks with high-quality rice or rice that is easier to sell JFV 4 Trade: according to the data of China's customs, China's rice import in 2001 increased by nearly 23% compared with that in 2000 But rice imports are still small overall The total amount of rice imports in 2001 was about 293000 tons Almost all the imported rice is high-quality fragrant rice, which comes from Thailand Most of the imported rice is sold to South China Chinese importers are familiar with the rice market in Thailand They know the seasonal supply and quality differences in each region Transportation costs are relatively low China is expected to buy more Thai rice next year Rice is usually imported in the last quarter of each year What has changed in JFV since last year is that the market is now open to private traders on the premise that they have sufficient transportation equipment and sufficient supply Many provinces and cities are more open to trade than other regions And the government now allows buyers with sufficient warehouses, sales warehouses, capital and human resources to trade in domestic rice If a trading unit needs to import rice, it must apply for rice import license and rice import inspection license before signing the trade contract The degree of implementation of import measures is inconsistent And the government has not published standards on the adequacy of facilities and resources In 2001, China's rice exports decreased by nearly 37% compared with 2000 The total export volume is more than 1.862 million tons, nearly half of which are sold to Ivory Coast In 2000, more than half of China's rice exports were sold to Ivory Coast Many Chinese government officials and traders believe that cheap labor is one of the competitive advantages of rice production So they believe China will continue to be a big rice exporter But they began to realize that using labor advantage to produce other products, such as vegetables and flowers, could make better profits As a result, rice exports may decline and other labor-intensive products may increase Provincial officials and traders don't think China will run out of rice import quotas in 2002 or in recent years It is not expected that rice imports will increase significantly as rice stocks are considered sufficient for at least the next two to three years The increase of rice import is only to increase the import of fragrant rice As China's per capita income increases, more consumers are expected to start buying quality rice and fragrant rice for household consumption Domestic rice producers are trying to supply these varieties JFV