Review on the domestic spot soybean meal market

Introduction: the long-awaited detailed rules for the implementation of genetically modified management regulations have been issued Although there is no obvious difference between the regulations in writing and those on June 6, 2001, it has caused a great stir in the futures market and finally led to linkage in the spot market On January 7, 2002, the contract price of Dalian futures has increased nearly 200 yuan / ton each month after the introduction of the detailed rules of the GM management regulations On January 9, the spot market began to follow up The price of domestic soybean in Shandong market was 1860-1880 yuan / ton, up about 60 yuan / ton The price of soybean meal was 1560-1600 yuan / ton, up nearly 100 yuan / ton Imported soybeans began to be reluctant to sell, with a slight increase in the price How to look at this change, the author from the spot point of view to talk about a few understandings: first of all, the inducement of this rise lies in the promulgation of the detailed rules of genetically modified management regulations, which makes people's expectations on the arrival of domestic imported soybeans in the later stage change, especially whether South American soybeans can smoothly enter the Chinese market after March deserves attention Secondly, the rise of the price is in the early stage of the domestic Spring Festival transportation The emergence of transportation tension and the arrival of the centralized stocking season of feed manufacturers have brought more direct reasons for the rise of the price What should have happened originally has been expanded because of the introduction of the detailed rules Third, according to the previous statistical law, January to march is the off-season for the arrival of imported soybeans In 2000, 10.42 million tons of soybeans were imported In the first quarter, only 1 million tons of soybeans were imported In 2001, 14.2 million tons of soybeans were expected to be imported In the first quarter, only 1.96 million tons were imported, with a relatively small proportion According to the latest signing situation, the number of domestic soybean imports will also decline from January to March this year, and the impact of imports on China will also weaken In the above analysis, I mentioned that the detailed rules for the implementation of the regulations on genetically modified management is only the cause of the rising market The main meaning is that the detailed rules are as uncertain as the regulations, i.e policy flexibility I hope that you will pay attention to preventing possible risks when you see the bright future (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: