Review of soybean in September

Introduction: key points: 1 The world's soybean output and demand are down 2 The U.S soybean yield per unit area is down The soybean futures price is down this month 3 China's imported soybean is stagnant The domestic soybean price will rise Overview: The world soybean production is slightly lower than last month Due to the weak global economy, the global demand for soybeans is reduced, but it is still higher than last year's import level The growth of oil seed and vegetable oil supply in the United States and overseas is slowing down, and the price level of soybeans in the United States is expected to increase The U.S soybean futures fell this month, mainly due to harvesting In addition, the U.S soybean production will be at a historically high level, while the new demand is uncertain At the same time, the U.S market is facing strict import policy restrictions from China On the Chinese side, recently, the speed of soybean import has almost stagnated It is estimated that the import volume in October and November will also decrease, and the price of domestic soybean will rise ★ first of all, let's look at the world soybean supply and demand Output: the U.S Department of Agriculture said that the world soybean output in 2001 was 175.4 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons, and the U.S soybean output was reduced In 2001, Canada's soybean output forecast was also reduced to 2.3 million tons, because of the drought in southern Ontario Import: the U.S Department of agriculture will reduce the estimated world soybean import volume in 2001 / 02 to 55.8 million tons, but it is still higher than the import volume in 2000 / 01 of 53.4 million tons China's soybean import in 2001 / 02 is expected to cut by 500000 tons to 14 million tons In 2001 / 02, Mexico's soybean import is expected to increase from 4.4 million tons to 4.5 million tons, and the EU's soybean import is likely to increase from 17 million tons in 2000 / 01 to 17.7 million tons, because there is no growth in the EU's domestic oil seed production, and the EU continues to ban the use of meat and bone meal Strong growth in Thai imports of soybeans and soybean meal is likely to continue as poultry exports have been accelerating ★ spot soybean production in the United States: according to the survey of the United States Department of agriculture, the average soybean production per acre in 2001 was 38.2 bushels, slightly higher than last year's 38.1 bushels According to the national soybean planting area of 74 million 100 thousand acres in the United States, the total soybean production will be equal to 28 million 340 thousand tons Soybean production on this scale will be 64 million bushels higher than the 2000 record Based on a slight increase in soybean crushing and export demand in the previous year, the opening inventory in 2001 / 02 fell to 240 million bushels Together, these factors reduced the estimated soybean supply for 2001 / 02 by 43 million bushels this month Price: the summer rebound in soybean prices peaked last month, with rain at the end of August and early September stabilizing soybeans, especially those late sown, the USDA said The moderate temperature in August also helps to maintain the potential per unit yield, and there has been no early frost so far Nevertheless, slower growth in the supply of oilseeds and vegetable oil in the United States and abroad should lead to higher prices The U.S Department of agriculture forecasts an average farm price of $4.40 to $5.40 per bushel for 2001 / 02, compared with $4.55 in 2000 / 01 However, the market price rise is unlikely to exceed the national loan rate of $5.26/bushel In 2001, the total agricultural income from soybeans in the United States is likely to change very little, as the decrease in market loan earnings offsets the additional gains from the rise in spot prices ★ U.S soybean futures September CBOT: in September, the closing price of Chicago Board of trade soybean futures was 4.5125 U.S dollars / bushel, the highest point of this month was 4.85 U.S dollars / bushel, the lowest point was 4.505 U.S dollars / bushel, the volume was 590773, and the short volume was 146968 28.25 cents / bushel down from last month This month, before the USDA issued its output forecast on September 14, people's opinions on soybean output were quite different in the market, which restricted the trend of the market At the same time, the lack of weather threat and global economic downturn, the strength of the US dollar put pressure on the market, and the period price continued to fall Before and after the release of the negative USDA output report, the market was volatile, but The general trend of the decline remains unchanged In the face of harvesting pressure, fear of economic instability brought by terrorist attacks, and slow export, especially under the influence of negative factors such as China's absence from the U.S soybean market, CBOT soybean futures ended the whole month with a negative line The USDA's production forecast, which was scheduled to be released on September 12, was postponed to September 14 due to the terrorist attacks on September 11 In this report, USDA predicted that USDA's soybean production in 2001 / 02 would be 2.834 billion bushels, only slightly lower than that predicted in August, while the market has been expecting USDA to significantly reduce soybean production But that's still a record, but the USDA has cut its end of year inventory by 10 million bushels for the old and 45 million bushels for the new It has increased the squeezing in both years by 5 million bushels, and now the USDA expects the squeezing in the new farming year to be 1.66 billion bushels The export forecast of Chen agricultural year is slightly higher than that of new agricultural year According to the prediction of the U.S Department of agriculture, there is no change in soybean production in South America It is predicted that the soybean production in Brazil will still be 39 million tons in 2001 / 02, and that in Argentina will be 26 million tons U.S soybean stocks reached 248 million bushels on September 1, 20 million bushels higher than the industry average, according to the September 29 U.S Department of agriculture's quarterly inventory report In fact, the industry's highest expectation is only 241 million bushels What's more, the USDA cut soybean production by 12 million bushels in 2000 to 2.758 billion bushels The already weak market is even more bearish due to higher than expected soybean stocks, especially as soybean production in the US and South America is expected to exceed demand From the perspective of fund positions, the fund seems to have flattened most of the multiple orders on soybeans On July 31, the net long position of the fund reached a peak of 33000 By September 10, the day before the terrorist attacks, the number of multiple orders of the fund had been reduced to about 10000 After September 27, it is expected that the net multiple of the fund will be only 1000 In addition to the pressure of harvest season, and the weather forecast is clear in the near future, so it is expected that CBOT soybean futures in the United States will continue to face downward pressure ★ domestic spot soybean situation: Let's look at China's domestic spot soybean situation: according to the China Grain and oil information center, soybean import has almost stagnated This is because the national quality inspection and Quarantine Bureau requires import quarantine departments around the country to strengthen the quarantine of imported soybean quality According to the speed of importing 1.76 million tons of soybean in August, 7-8 ships arrive in domestic port areas on average every week However, it is understood that after September 10, only one ship arrived in Ningbo successfully passed the quality quarantine, while the other 4-5 ships still failed to pass the newly announced quality inspection regulations Among these ships, one ship of soybeans arrived at Rizhao port on September 14 only transported part of the cargo to the warehouse designated by the quality inspection department Before the detailed sampling and quarantine results were published, the cargo could not be delivered The phenomenon of import soybean stagnating in port has a significant impact on the psychology of import soybean traders Some of them began to operate and resell soybeans If domestic import traders continue to resell soybeans due to increasing import costs due to worries about the cumbersome import procedures, the number of soybeans imported in October and November will be significantly less than that in the same period last year The U.S Department of agriculture also said in a report released on September 14 that China's import pace will soon slow down due to the low profit of squeezing, the huge inventory and the impending domestic harvest Another obstacle to China's purchase of new beans has been uncertainty about how the government will implement new regulations on the import of biotech crops As a result, China's imports of soybeans will be reduced However, the United States is very dissatisfied with the recent interruption of China's soybean import trade Recently, researchers from the national grain and Oil Information Center conducted a field investigation on soybean harvesting and purchasing in the main grain and oil producing areas in the east of Heilongjiang Province As of September 25, most of the soybeans in Jiamusi suburb had been harvested According to local farmers, due to the lack of rainfall since August, this year's soybean podding rate is less than last year, and the grain size of the upper part of the soybean plant is significantly smaller than the lower part, and the 100 grain weight of the soybean is less than last year's 1-2g The decrease of 100 grain weight of soybean directly leads to the decrease of soybean yield per mu Although the height of soybean plants generally exceeds 1 meter, the short supply of rainwater in the later stage of soybean makes the soybean roundness effect bad in the near future, and the yield per mu can reach 240-260 kg / Mu at most In general, the growth of soybean in the eastern part of Heilongjiang Province is slightly lower than that of last year, and the yield is expected to be reduced by about 5% New beans in Heilongjiang Province have been listed one after another In Jixian area, the price of soybean purchased from farmers on September 20 is 0.82-0.83 yuan / Jin, and the price of soybean purchased from farmers on farms in the east of Jiamusi is 0.79-0.80 yuan / Jin With the sufficient supply of soybeans, the local soybean processing plants in Heilongjiang Province have started production again At the same time, the start-up of local soybean processing plants has also promoted the increase of local demand for soybeans, which has increased the purchase price compared with the early ten days of this year On September 28, the price of purchasing soybeans from farmers in Jixian region generally increased by 1-2 points / Jin It is understood that at present, most of the new soybeans in Heilongjiang region are purchased and digested by local processing plants, and the basic soybeans sent to Guannei processing plants are basically purchased and digested by local processing plants Last year's Chen Dou Price trend of domestic soybeans: according to analysis, the price of domestic soybeans in the later period will mainly depend on the digestion ability of coastal soybean processing plants for imported soybeans It is expected that the basic digestion of domestic overstocked imported soybeans will give domestic soybeans a chance to rise in November According to the latest statistics released by the customs, the import of domestic soybeans in August was 1.76 million tons In 2000 / 01, a total of 11.64 million tons of soybeans were imported, an increase of 2.04 million tons compared with the 9.6 million tons imported in 1999 / 2000, a year-on-year increase of 21.25% It is expected that the number of imported soybeans will be reduced to 500000-600000 tons in September due to the delay in the delivery period of soybeans due to the strengthening of quality inspection by the national quality inspection department The postponement of the delivery date of soybean in September led to the corresponding increase of soybean supply in October It is understood that the current soybean backlog in the hands of traders and processing plants is about 400000 tons, and that in the port area is about 200000 tons In addition to the 300000-400000 tons expected to arrive in October, the supply of imported soybeans in October will be between 900000-1 million tons From the perspective of demand, as the recent domestic soybean meal price drop directly led to a reduction in the demand for imported soybeans, the digestion of imported soybeans in October faced heavy pressure On September 28, the ex factory price of second-class soybean meal in Shandong Province was 1640-1660 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton compared with the first ten days; the ex factory price of second-class soybean meal in East China was 1750-1760 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the first ten days If Shandong