Review and Prospect of corn market in the near future (2)

Introduction: on the whole, after nearly half a year's silence in the corn market, the price has recovered However, from the current market situation, the price rise can only be called the price rebound, rather than the one-sided understanding of the market reversal The main reasons are as follows: 1 From the Perspective of the acquisition market The quantity of corn purchased in Northeast China has increased, and the stock of each storage enterprise is relatively abundant At present, the corn consumption in the sales area basically comes from North China and Huanghuai region, and the supply quantity of corn to be developed in Northeast China is huge, which has a heavy pressure on the future market 2 From the perspective of farmers' psychology In the early stage, corn prices fell continuously, and as the end of the year approached, farmers' psychology of reluctant to sell was also changing, and the psychology of "selling grain for cash" was strengthened The survey showed that in addition to the large amount of corn in the hands of grain hoarders, the surplus grain in the hands of retail investors was not much, and the support for corn prices caused by reluctant to sell was weakening 3 From the perspective of market situation At present, the quantity of aged grain in the production area is still huge, and the pressure on the market still exists at all times In order to increase the quantity of aged corn out of the warehouse and reduce the inventory of corn, the grain departments of northeast provinces generally reduce the price of aged corn out of the warehouse by a large margin, which is 20-50 yuan / ton Although the selling of aged corn alleviates the inventory pressure, it increases the quantity available in the market 4 From the perspective of transgenic details The introduction of genetically modified detailed rules really benefits food crops such as soybeans and corn After studying the detailed rules, the basic spirit of the detailed rules is not to refuse to import, but to conduct more perfect and detailed inspection and quarantine for the sake of safety Since the implementation of the GM rules on March 20, the import of corn in China will slow down this year, but the slowing down does not mean that the absolute import quantity will decrease this year, and the duration of the promotion of the GM rules on the food market in the later period is still uncertain 5 From the perspective of import and export trade Although the shipment time of the million tons of corn to be purchased in China is from March to may, and whether this batch of corn can enter the domestic market smoothly is uncertain, but this year is the first year of China's accession to the WTO How to complete the import quota is not only related to the development trend of the domestic corn market, the relationship between the Chinese and the people, but also related to China's reputation in the WTO In order to protect the domestic corn market and reduce the tariff, it is necessary to The impact of imported corn on the domestic market, the country needs to do everything to increase the export of corn to balance, but the price will gradually integrate with the price of the international corn market, the increase of import quantity is inevitable, so the purchasing psychology of enterprises will still be tight, which will hinder the reasonable increase of market demand, and still form a disadvantage to the market Based on the above points, the price of corn before the festival will be dominated by the trend of stable recovery Whether the price rise can continue after the Spring Festival depends on many factors such as the national policy orientation, the quantity of imported corn, the market supply and demand situation and the international market situation.