Review and Prospect of corn market in international market from January to July

Introduction: Since China's accession to the WTO, with the continuous deepening of the reform of China's grain circulation system, China's grain market and the international market are further integrated The price trend of spot and futures in the international corn market is bound to attract the high attention of China's grain market From January to July 2002, the price of corn in the international market was first depressed and then increased, and the market trend was completely opposite to that in the domestic market According to the relevant information of the National Information Center, the author briefly reviews the international corn market from January to July: January 2002: Chicago corn futures price trend is relatively stable and steadily rising The average price of corn for the most recent delivery period (March) in Chicago in January 2002 was about $81.6/ton At the same time, the FOB price of corn also rose By January 28, the average FOB price of yellow corn in Meiwan 2 was 92.37 USD / ton, up 0.20 USD / ton compared with December February 2002: the world corn price dropped, mainly due to the impact of the world wheat price drop, the recovery of Argentina's grain export, and the determination of China's corn export policy after China's accession to the WTO On February 25, the monthly average price of corn futures for the latest delivery period in Chicago was $80.61/ton, down nearly $0.99/ton compared with January The price of yellow corn in US bay 2 was $90.79/ton, down $1.6 from January March 2002: the world corn price fell slightly The United States will increase corn planting area in 2002, which will bring greater pressure on the market Eastern Europe began to export to Asia, and corn supply increased, limiting the rise of corn prices On March 28, the monthly average price of corn futures for the latest delivery period in Chicago was $80.3/ton, down $0.07/ton compared with February The average price of yellow corn in Meiwan 2 is 89.61 US dollars / ton, down 2.25 US dollars / ton compared with February April 2002: world corn prices continue to fall After entering WTO, China continues to support corn export Corn from Eastern European countries is also pouring into the international market The competition in the international corn market is intensified The increase of corn planting area in the United States is still a concern of the market The average price of corn in Argentina this month is 87.2 US dollars / ton, up 1.3 US dollars compared with March; the average settlement price of corn futures in Chicago for the latest delivery period is 78.5 US dollars / ton, down 1.8 US dollars / ton compared with March The average price of yellow corn in Meiwan 2 is 87.2 US dollars / ton, down 2.3 US dollars / ton compared with March May 2002: the delay of corn planting in the United States caused the market to worry about the output, which pushed the Chicago corn futures price higher The rising water level of the Mississippi River in the United States pushed up the export price of corn International corn prices began to rise On May 29, the monthly average settlement price of corn futures for the latest delivery period in Chicago was $81.8/ton, up $3.50/ton from March On May 17, the average price of yellow corn in Meiwan 2 was 88.81 US dollars / ton, up 2.57 US dollars / ton compared with April Argentina's corn fell by $0.25/ton compared with last month June 2002: the corn belt in the United States continued to be dry and hot, and corn growth was affected Chicago corn futures continued to rise The new agricultural law of the United States has increased the loan rate of corn, which makes the market expect that the corn planting area in the United States will increase, and the weather in the United States will have a negative impact on corn production In June, the monthly average settlement price of corn futures for the latest delivery period in Chicago was 83.4 US dollars / ton, up 1.4 US dollars / ton from May The average price of yellow corn in Meiwan 2 is 93.6 US dollars / ton, up 3.8 US dollars / ton compared with April Argentina's corn export price is 92.0 US dollars / ton, up 3.4 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month July 2002: high temperature weather continues to appear in the corn belt of the United States, which will affect the corn yield in the critical period of corn growth Chicago corn futures rose sharply At the end of the month, due to rainfall, Chicago futures fell In July, the monthly average settlement price of corn futures for the latest delivery in Chicago was 92.7 USD / ton, up 9.3 USD / ton compared with that in June, while in July 2001, the average settlement price of corn for the latest delivery in Chicago was only 83.6 USD / ton; the average price of yellow corn in Meiwan 2 was 100.3 USD / ton, up 6.7 USD / ton compared with that in June Argentina's corn export price is 96.5 US dollars / ton, up 4.5 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month The impact of international market changes on China's corn market 1 Corn prices in the international market continue to rise, bringing business opportunities for China's corn exports With the rising price of corn in the international market this year, the export situation of corn in China in the first half of this year is good This year's grain related policies issued by China have positive significance for corn export this year The positive role of national macro-control has a positive effect on China's corn export in the second half of the year From January to June, China's corn exports totaled 3.49 million tons, an increase of 11.13% compared with the export volume of 3.1359 million tons from January to June 2001 China's corn export flows to South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and North Korea Although China's corn export momentum is very good this year, we should also see that China's share of corn in the international market is still small Take Japan as an example, Japan imports more than 15 million tons of corn from the international market every year, while the amount imported from China is very small; China's corn output accounts for 19.8% of the world's corn output, while the export volume only accounts for 8.2% of the world's corn 2 It is beneficial for the sales price of corn in the international market of our country to gradually connect with the international market Due to historical reasons, there is a certain gap between the price of corn in China and that in the international market For example, the price difference between some countries in Southeast Asia to buy corn from China and the United States is generally about $10 / ton With the rising price of corn in the international market, it has brought business opportunities for China's corn export, but also expanded the impact of China's corn in the international market The high price of corn in the United States makes Southeast Asian countries pay more attention to Chinese corn with relatively stable quality and price With the formation of relatively stable purchase and sale channels, in the second half of this year, the export price of corn in China will increase with the change of international market The increase of price and share of corn in the international market in China will also play a supporting role in the stability and rise of domestic corn price 3 The price fluctuation of international corn market will increase this year After May this year, the price of corn in Meiwan began to rise slightly, and after June, the rate of rise accelerated significantly Since August, the FOB price of American corn export has continued to rise slightly The FOB price of American Bay corn export is about 105-106 US dollars / ton, 16 US dollars / ton higher than may, 11.4 US dollars / ton higher than June and 4.7 US dollars / ton higher than July Judging from the continuous rise of corn price in Meiwan and the sharp rise of Chicago futures market, the fluctuation of corn price in the international market will be intensified this year, and the competition of corn in the international market will be more intense 4 The possibility of a large amount of corn entering China in the international market will be gradually reduced In the first half of this year, China's corn slowly climbed from the low position Although it rose after six months, the price difference between China's corn and imported corn is still large According to the current FOB price of Meiwan port (shipment date in August), the reference price of American corn to China port is at least 1240-1250 yuan / ton, about 10 yuan / ton higher than that in mid July In June, the price of corn in Huangpu port and Shekou port was about 1140 yuan / ton and 1120 yuan / ton respectively The main reason why foreign corn does not enter China is that there is no profit margin In the second half of the year, it is also unlikely that foreign corn will enter China The main reason is that the supply of domestic corn market is increasing and the price is low, while the price in the international market is rising International trade merchants will choose the international market with larger profit margin (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: