Review and forecast of domestic soybean market

Introduction: in the early stage of August, the domestic soybean market continued the downward trend in late July, and in late August, it went out of a wave of policy oriented upward market In early August, domestic soybeans basically kept a steady downward trend, and the spot price of imported soybeans at major domestic ports continued to fall The main factors affecting the soybean market are as follows: 1 The main reason for the price drop of domestic soybean is that the soybean price soars in the early stage, the purchasing cost of traders keeps rising, the volume of trading decreases, and the inventory increases, resulting in the market price drop 2 The low profit of soybean crushing has led to the shutdown of many small crushing enterprises and the inactive soybean purchasing 3 At present, the soybean supply is sufficient, and the situation of short supply in the early stage has been improved China imported 1.83 million tons of soybeans in July, 1.4 million tons in August and 1.1 million tons in September, according to the General Administration of customs, Although the number of soybeans imported from the United States decreased sharply after the promulgation of the genetically modified regulations, the number of soybeans imported from Argentina and Brazil increased by 104% and 114%, respectively According to the current crushing capacity of 1.3-1.4 million tons per month in China, it is estimated that there will be a backlog of about 400000 tons of soybeans in major domestic ports by the beginning of September The shortage of domestic soybean supply in September caused by the reduction of domestic importers' purchasing capacity in August due to the government's promulgation of genetically modified regulations can also be alleviated Therefore, before the domestic soybean was listed in October, the supply of soybean market was sufficient and there was a heavy pressure on the spot market 4 Due to the decline of international soybean market price At present, the quotation of domestic soybean traders changes with the change of Chicago soybean futures price, so the quotation of domestic imported soybean also slightly drops 5 In early June, the Chinese government issued the regulations on the safety of agricultural genetically modified organisms, which requires that genetically modified products must have the certificate of harmlessness to human beings, animals and the environment, and that imported genetically modified products should be labeled with special labels Most of China's soybean imports come from the United States According to the United States Department of agriculture, 68% of American soybeans are genetically modified soybeans The introduction of genetically modified regulations has increased the selling cost of American soybeans entering the Chinese market After the promulgation of the genetically modified regulations, the import of domestic soybeans has declined significantly As China has become the world's largest soybean importer, it is bound to have an impact on the international soybean market Driven by this policy, domestic soybean began to rise from the beginning of June, and Dalian soybean futures rose accordingly But in late July, influenced by the fall of CBOT period price, the price of imported soybean began to fall At the beginning of August, it was reported that the detailed rules and regulations of genetically modified management could not be released until October Dalian soybean immediately began to decline, and the spot market price of domestic soybean began to decline By August 10, the price of domestic port was kept at 2100-2130 yuan / ton On August 14, Belgian scientists found an unpredictable DNA fragment in genetically modified soybeans in the United States Affected by this news, the CBOT soybean futures fell sharply on August 16, and the contracts fell by 13-15 cents each month However, Dalian soybean, which has been affected by CBOT for a long time, made different reactions this time On August 17, the Bulls launched a strong campaign under the influence of genetically modified regulations Strong counter attack, the price of the whole line pulled up close to the limit The soybean price in Heilongjiang Province, the main production area, also went out of the decline in early August As of August 27, the soybean price in Heilongjiang Province was 1880 yuan / ton, up 20-30 yuan / ton compared with the previous period It is expected that the factors supporting the soybean price increase in the later stage are: 1 The decline in output will play a supporting role in the price According to the survey data, the soybean planting area in China in 2001 was about 8.7 million hectares, a decrease of 610000 hectares, a decrease of 7% It is estimated that the soybean production in China in 2001 will reach 14.61 million tons, a decrease of 800000 tons, a decrease of 5% compared with that in 2000 The soybean planting area in Heilongjiang main production area this year is about 2.5 million hectares, a decrease of 17.3% compared with that in 2000, and in Northeast China from May to June The drought has affected the normal emergence of soybean, and the delay of production period will also increase the possibility of soybean affected by early frost in autumn this year Heilongjiang soybean is expected to reduce production by about 10% this year Although in the whole world, the global soybean supply and demand is basically balanced, but the reduction of production will still play a supporting role in the future domestic soybean market 2 In the short term, the regulations on the safety management of genetically modified organisms will also play a role in promoting the price rise of domestic soybeans The original intention of this regulation issued by the state is to enhance the competitiveness of domestic self-produced soybeans and implement non-tariff barriers China will not pursue blind barriers in the near future after entering WTO, which will only lead to a new round of trade war The real purpose is to find an organic balance between actively entering WTO and enhancing the competitiveness of domestic soybeans, so that a large number of foreign cheap soybeans will enter China after entering WTO This may be the reason why China has implemented a buffer before and the detailed rules of GMOs regulations are not published Therefore, the GMOs safety management regulations will still play a role in promoting the domestic soybean price rise in the next few months The factors that restrain the rise of soybean price are as follows: first, some American scientists have declared that the unpredictable DNA fragments found in the genetically modified soybean in the United States are harmless to human body, and the CBOT period price has begun to stabilize, and the influence of this factor has been digested by the market 2 After the detailed rules of genetically modified management regulations are published, it will not affect the import of soybeans that are harmless to human body Meanwhile, according to traders' estimates, China's soybean gap this year is about 12 million tons, and all of these soybeans are dependent on import, so once the detailed rules are published, domestic soybeans will also enter the normal competitive orbit Third, China's accession to the WTO will not have a very significant impact on the domestic soybean market Although China is the fourth largest soybean producer in the world, its total output is far from that of the United States, Brazil and Argentina The demand gap has made China the largest soybean importer in the world For a long time, it has opened up the door to international competition At present, the extra quota tariff on imported soybeans has reached 114%, but in the actual trade, the quota has survived But in any case, when a large number of cheap soybeans from abroad come in, the domestic market will face strong pressure Therefore, based on the above factors, the domestic soybean market is likely to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term, which will be determined by domestic policies and international market After October, the domestic soybean harvest and China's accession to the WTO are expected to inevitably decline in the fourth quarter At the same time, Liandou is likely to come out of a wave of deep correction market.