Researchers have found that respiratory viral infections follow a predictable seasonal pattern

Researchers at the University of Alberta have identified obvious seasonal patterns of respiratory viruses, which may help hospitals prepare for wave after wave of patients in advance

The University of Michigan research team analyzed the respiratory diseases caused by six viruses.

"Knowing these models in advance can help the health care system," suggested Hawkes, a member of the Women's and Children's Health Institute and a distinguished researcher at the Storery Science Laboratory

Hawkes said the study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association Network, was to explore the continuing trend that pediatricians noticed for a specific virus targeting infants

"(The medical profession) is well known that in December and January, hospital wards are crowded with infants infected with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)

This seasonal pattern was found in more than 10,000 Alberta infants hospitalized with respiratory syncytial virus

At the same time, Hawkes and his team studied other respiratory viruses, including some human coronavirus strains, and based on clinical laboratory data analysis of more than 37,000 patients in Alberta from 2005 to 2017, it was confirmed They have similar seasonal and biennial patterns

"From a year with a high infection rate, a large number of people with immunity enter the next season, which means a low infection rate

In general, the results of the study can be used to help the health care system predict and prepare for the high incidence of diseases that require hospitalization

"For example, understanding these patterns will allow us to strengthen immunity to confluence of respiratory viruses and communicate information to the public on measures such as hand washing.

He predicted that the number of respiratory syncytial virus cases may be high this winter, and pointed out that given the restrictions on COVID-19 last year, many people stayed at home and did not go to school, reducing the number of cases and low immunity

"Based on the meaning of our work, the health care system should be prepared for a wave

Hawkes added that although the coronavirus studied by the researchers can cause less serious diseases such as the common cold and flu, these findings may help hospitals prepare for future seasonal COVID-19 waves or other new developments.

"COVID-19, like its cousin, is a respiratory virus.
It is likely to follow the similar pattern of the other six viruses.
So we can predict that under natural conditions and without vaccine intervention, the winter of COVID-19 The peaks and summer lows will continue
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"

Hawkes pointed out that although mass vaccination will change the pattern, understanding the seasonal pattern will prepare hospitals for the peak of disease in the unvaccinated population
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"We can predict the peak and valley months of the disease and adjust our intensive care unit capacity accordingly
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