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According to a new analysis by DNV GL, the Norwegian classification society, global warming is inevitable even if global renewable electricity rises sharply, by about 2.
4°C
.
These are slightly different from other scenarios in which the global energy transition may unfold, but they affirm what others predict: the world is still a long way
from avoiding severe climate change.
"The real message here is urgency," said Group CEO Ditlev Engel, "and how much evidence do we need to take the necessary steps to dramatically accelerate this shift?" Because time is of the essence
.
The technology is there, but there is a need for greater regulation
.
”
Det Norske Veritas said the technology currently available could close the gap
between its forecast of 2.
4°C and 1.
5°C.
The scientists said, "If we are to avoid catastrophic climate change, this is the upper limit
of climate warming.
" ”
To close the gap, the company says the world needs to increase solar power by a factor of 10 and wind power by half, adding 50 million electric cars to the road each year, and classification societies are calling for a 50-fold
expansion of batteries, new ultra-high voltage transmission and massive charging infrastructure.
However, this scenario is not predicted by the classification society's
current energy models.
While classification societies predict that energy demand will level off in the 2030s, energy supply will peak in 2030, and renewables will account for 80% of the electricity mix in 2050 (electricity accounts for 40% of energy use that year).
In DNV GL's latest model, the final energy consumption of coal and oil in the power sector will be partially replaced by renewables, but both will still be part of the source of
electricity in 2050.
Det Norske Veritas predicts that natural gas will peak in 2033 and oil by 2022
.
Although coal has reached its global peak, the fastest elimination rates will be concentrated in North America and Europe, while others will remain
.
Globally, the role of fossil fuels is gradually being limited, and by 2050, its share of the global energy demand mix will fall from 80% today to around
56%.
Fossil fuels will account for about
18% of the electricity mix.
Among them, solar energy and wind power generation will account for more than 30% respectively, and offshore wind power will account for about
40% of the total wind power generation.
According to a new analysis by DNV GL, the Norwegian classification society, global warming is inevitable even if global renewable electricity rises sharply, by about 2.
4°C
.
These are slightly different from other scenarios in which the global energy transition may unfold, but they affirm what others predict: the world is still a long way
from avoiding severe climate change.
"The real message here is urgency," said Group CEO Ditlev Engel, "and how much evidence do we need to take the necessary steps to dramatically accelerate this shift?" Because time is of the essence
.
The technology is there, but there is a need for greater regulation
.
”
Det Norske Veritas said the technology currently available could close the gap
between its forecast of 2.
4°C and 1.
5°C.
The scientists said, "If we are to avoid catastrophic climate change, this is the upper limit
of climate warming.
" ”
To close the gap, the company says the world needs to increase solar power by a factor of 10 and wind power by half, adding 50 million electric cars to the road each year, and classification societies are calling for a 50-fold
expansion of batteries, new ultra-high voltage transmission and massive charging infrastructure.
However, this scenario is not predicted by the classification society's
current energy models.
While classification societies predict that energy demand will level off in the 2030s, energy supply will peak in 2030, and renewables will account for 80% of the electricity mix in 2050 (electricity accounts for 40% of energy use that year).
In DNV GL's latest model, the final energy consumption of coal and oil in the power sector will be partially replaced by renewables, but both will still be part of the source of
electricity in 2050.
Det Norske Veritas predicts that natural gas will peak in 2033 and oil by 2022
.
Although coal has reached its global peak, the fastest elimination rates will be concentrated in North America and Europe, while others will remain
.
Globally, the role of fossil fuels is gradually being limited, and by 2050, its share of the global energy demand mix will fall from 80% today to around
56%.
Fossil fuels will account for about
18% of the electricity mix.
Among them, solar energy and wind power generation will account for more than 30% respectively, and offshore wind power will account for about
40% of the total wind power generation.
