Recent changes in supply and demand of domestic and international soybean market

Introduction: this week's domestic soybean market can be described as a changing situation, showing style The first is the market rumors that the country will strengthen the quarantine of imported soybeans, which triggered a strong rally in soybeans on Monday, followed by the US air strikes that caused investors to mess up In the future, the evolution of soybean price has put on a mysterious color, and the market has added many new uncertainties Here, the author traces back to the source and makes the following analysis on the change factors of the recent fundamentals of the market for the reference of investors Recent situation of domestic soybean spot market: Recently, the domestic export inspection and quarantine department has complained about the quality problem of soybean to the United States The AQSIQ recently sent an urgent message to strengthen the inspection of imported grain and so on This made a big splash in the futures market this week, with the soybeans closing sharply higher on Monday The spot market has also been affected to a certain extent According to the statistics of relevant departments, there is no record of large volume transactions of domestic imported soybeans in recent years, and the volume of transactions has declined significantly This has had a positive impact on the spot price of domestic soybeans, with spot prices rising steadily all over the country, maintaining between 2040-2100, with an average increase of 20 yuan / ton compared with last week Generally speaking, after September, the domestic soybean will enter the harvest period At present, the market is optimistic about the soybean harvest prospect in Heilongjiang, the main soybean producing area Weather forecast experts predict that the weather in Heilongjiang is conducive to soybean harvest In the next two weeks, the early frost may be small The local soybean will be harvested in late September It is expected that the soybean will be listed one after another before the National Day holiday The large-scale listing after the festival will put some pressure on the soybean spot and futures markets Recently, the domestic futures market has fully reflected this, the recent spot month trend is very weak, S11, S201 prices are significantly reduced, which reflects that investors are still not optimistic about the future market GM has been a sharp sword hovering over soybeans, which is still pending At present, specific management rules have not been issued, and it is estimated that importers will not sign a large number of contracts in the near future International Soybean spot market supply and demand changes since September, the U.S soybean has also entered the season of centralized harvest, which is also the most critical period of soybean trade In this period, soybean has been harvested and centralized listed According to Reuters, at present, crop harvest is accelerating in the plains of the United States, Mississippi and delt areas Judging from the harvest situation, the soybean and corn yields in these areas are very good On the other hand, investors also generally hold a positive view on the crop supply and demand report to be released on Friday, but I think its impact is short-lived In the long run, the pressure of new bean listing cannot be ignored Influenced by China's efforts to strengthen the inspection of imported grains and genetically modified factors, the export situation of us soybeans this week is very bad The export of soybeans in the export sales report of the Ministry of agriculture is only 72400 tons, which is the lowest point of the market this year, far lower than the expectation of the industry, which greatly affects the demand of the US soybeans market in the near future At the same time that American soybean export is affected by policy, South America and other countries occupy American market According to the independent analyst agroconsult, Brazil's market sales situation is good The soybean output in 2001-02 will reach 42.2 million tons, 75% of which will be exported to overseas market It also estimates that, so far, 35% of soybeans have been sold in 2001-02 This is another new pressure on the US market The WTO holds a negative attitude towards the soybean subsidy policy given by the United States to soybean growers The new American agricultural law reduces the subsidy of soybean from $5.26 to $4.92/bushel Experts predict that this will lead to a decrease of 1 million acres of planting area in the United States, which will directly increase the unit price of soybean However, there is still great uncertainty in this matter Its adoption is yet to be considered by Congress, and the new agricultural bill will not be implemented until 2003 The impact of the air raid on the soybean market throughout the history of every war event or political event, its impact on the commodity price of strategic resources is more favorable, such as the gold and oil rose significantly after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in the Gulf War, which has been reflected in the gold and oil trading prices after the incident In addition, generally speaking, in war or chaos, the government will consider to reserve a certain amount of food and other necessities If the United States or other countries decide to take political or military action, it will lead to the destruction of normal grain trade channels, which will cause the market to purchase in panic From this point of view, the impact on soybean prices may be greater The impact on the U.S economy First, the direct impact is negative The stock market is suspended, the Chicago market is suspended, the dollar is down against the yen and the euro, and the stock markets in Japan, Europe and Hong Kong are down sharply The continued downturn of the US economy in the last two quarters is inevitable and is likely to worsen further The United States is the largest country in the world's insurance industry In the face of such a large loss, relevant experts have made a prediction that the global insurance companies will bear 10 billion to 15 billion US dollars of losses for this reason No insurance company in the United States can bear such a large amount of compensation Once the premium is compensated, it will have a huge impact on the American economy Combined with the blow of confidence and the loss after the blow, it will definitely make the U.S economy worse In the long run, the impact is also negative The United States is generally regarded as a haven for international hot money With the decline of the security image, the attraction of this haven will decline Now the world economy is developing in the direction of integration, the relationship between countries is increasingly close, and the decline of the U.S economy will have a negative impact on other countries to a large extent With the progress of the incident investigation, the United States may formulate some restrictive measures If the United States or other countries impose trade sanctions against countries where terrorist organizations are located, such as Saudi Arabia, Libya, Iraq and other large grain importing countries, including Afghanistan, which relies on food aid, etc., this will lead to a decline in global grain demand, which is very unfavorable to Global trade Soybean is a big international variety If there is no trade disorder in the near future, the market will be neutral In general, whether from a political or economic point of view, the impact of this event on commodity futures market has just begun It is suggested that investors should take this factor into account in the future transaction price It's true that there are many factors affecting commodity prices The above are just some of the most prominent ones in the near future However, various factors will eventually be reflected in the changes in the supply-demand relationship Investors will show various factors through prices, and these price fluctuations will be just like small changes in the general trend As long as you grasp the big direction accurately, you will be able to get To the ideal return (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: