Qin Li's research group from the School of Environment reveals the long-range coupling mechanism of global snowmelt dependence and climate risk in irrigated agriculture

A stable supply of water is the cornerstone of sustainable development of irrigated agriculture, where snowmelt runoff provides an important seasonal water resource
for irrigated agriculture.
However, the hydrological processes formed by snowmelt runoff are particularly sensitive
to climate change.
Global warming will continue to affect the formation time and flow of snowmelt runoff, change the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of snowmelt resources, and increase the risk
of food production in snowmelt-dependent areas.
Although only some countries are directly exposed to the risk of snowmelt under climate change, this local risk can be transmitted to other regions through international trade, causing the spread of snowmelt-dependent areas for irrigated agriculture and the redistribution of climate risks and posing a potential threat
to global food security.

Drawing on the virtual water and soil resources implied by trade, the research team built a comprehensive assessment framework for risk transmission in irrigated agricultural snowmelt-dependent areas under climate change by coupling crop water demand models, hydrometeorological datasets and global multi-regional input-output models, and made an important attempt
to provide a new research paradigm for revealing the remote coupling mechanism of climate risks.
The study found that 16 percent of the snowmelt runoff consumed globally for irrigated crops is implicit in international trade, with more than 70 percent concentrated in five major exporting countries
.
In contrast, the consumption of irrigated crops and their products that depend on snowmelt runoff is distributed around the world, indicating that international trade has led to a significant diffusion
of dependence on snowmelt runoff in irrigated agriculture.
Globally, Western European countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom are not directly exposed to snowmelt risk under the 2°C (4°C) scenario, but the proportion of local surface water irrigated crop supply exposed to potential snowmelt risk will increase to about 16% (19%) and 10% (16%)
respectively due to the import of irrigated crops and derivatives exposed to snowmelt risk.

In the context of climate change and globalization, international trade has driven the remote coupling of local snowmelt risks faced by irrigated agriculture on a global scale
.
The long-range transmission and redistribution mechanism of climate risks revealed in this study means that the world must develop climate adaptation strategies on a larger scale, which will help promote active cooperation on global climate mitigation actions, and provide scientific support
for addressing the risks of snowmelt in irrigated agriculture caused by climate change and ensuring global food security.

The findings were published in Nature Climate Change under the title "Snowmelt Risk Telecouplings for Irrigated Agriculture
.
" Professor Qin Li of the School of Environmental Science and Engineering of Peking University is the first author and co-corresponding author of the paper, and the other co-corresponding author is Professor
Nathaniel D.
Mueller of Colorado State University.
The collaborators include well-known experts
from Peking University, Tsinghua University Shenzhen International Graduate School, Beijing Normal University, University of Göttingen, World Resources Institute, University of California, Irvine, Ohio State University and other well-known experts in related fields at home and abroad.
The research work was supported
by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and other projects.
As a preliminary work on this achievement, Qin Li published a cover article in Nature Climate Change in 2020 revealing the historical dependence of global irrigated agriculture on snowmelt runoff and the immediate potential risks
faced by climate change.

Related References:

Qin Y, Hong CP, Zhao HY, Siebert S, Abatzoglou JT, Huning LS, Sloat L, Park S, Li SY, Munroe DK, Zhu T, Davis SJ, Mueller ND.
Snowmelt Risk Telecouplings for Irrigated Agriculture.
  Nature Climate Change .
2022.
https://doi.
org/10.
1038/s41558-022-01509-z

Qin Y.
Global competing water uses for food and energy.
 Environmental Research Letters.
 2021; 16(6): 064091.

https://iopscience.
iop.
org/article/10.
1088/1748-9326/ac06fa

Qin Y, Abatzoglou JT, Siebert S, Huning LS, AghaKouchak A, Mankin JS, Hong CP, Tong D, Davis SJ, Mueller ND.
Agricultural risks to changing snowmelt.
Nature Climate Change .
2020; 10: 459-465; (NCC cover article; NCC 10th Anniversary Highlights Article).
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 200%; text-indent: 2em; font-size: 16px;" _msthash="101747" _msttexthash="23083879">Qin Y, Mueller ND, Siebert S, Jackson RB, AghaKouchak A, Zimmerman JB, Tong D, Hong CP, Davis SJ.
Flexibility and intensity of global water use.
Nature Sustainability.
2019; 2: 515-523.
(Nature Research Highlights Report).