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On May 24, the average domestic spot price of PVC5 type was 8600 yuan / ton, down 0.
51% from the previous trading day and 6.
52%
year-on-year.
At present, futures prices are falling, the spot market is trading with the fall, the market trading is relatively flat, downstream demand continues to maintain rigid demand, the wait-and-see attitude is obvious, PVC companies let profits and shipments, low prices are frequent, the market center of gravity is down, and the transaction is more cautious and wait-and-see
.
Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4400-4500 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8250-8750 yuan / ton
.
The main change in the recent market is that external prices have begun to fall, especially in Southeast Asia, and the domestic export space has weakened
.
In addition, from the perspective of downstream starts, terminal demand has not improved in the near future
.
Real estate data performed extremely poorly in April, and on May 20, the domestic 5-year LPR fell more than expected, but the boost to PVC was not obvious
.
In terms of inventory, although the PVC market has started to destock, the actual digestion of inventory is slow due to the slow
follow-up of demand in the downstream market.
After a month and a half, PVC social stocks have only decreased by 43,100 tons, still remaining at the level
of more than 300,000 tons.
From the perspective of the long-term cycle, the completed area of domestic real estate has peaked and gradually declined, and the demand for domestic back-end varieties of real estate will enter a downward cycle
.
In addition, PVC production profits are better, and its relative valuation is higher
than other chemicals with large losses.
On the whole, PVC is treated
with empty allocation ideas.
On a weekly basis, the 09 contract price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8100-8700
.