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Market conditions: PVC main V2005 contract fluctuated higher on Friday, closing at 6620 yuan / ton, +105 yuan from the previous trading day; Volume 128599 lots, +27528 lots; Position 269917 lots, +42080 lots, basis 200 yuan, -105 yuan; 5-9 spread: 45 yuan, +10 yuan
.
News: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises this week was 81.
89%, down 0.
98% from last week and 0.
72% year-on-year; Among them, the calcium carbide method was 82.
45%, a decrease of 1.
09% month-on-month, and the ethylene method was 79.
27%, an increase of 1.
69%
month-on-month.
Spot market: the mainstream quotation of Guangzhou PVC market continues to loosen at 6850-6920 yuan / ton
.
Yili/Tianhu 6920 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia Yihua/Oriental Hope/Junzheng 6850 yuan/ton, Dagu 800 type 7170 yuan/ton, Dagu 1300 type 7200 yuan/ton
.
Tianhu/Yushe in Shantou area 6850 yuan / ton, real negotiation
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 948 lots, +588 lots
intraday.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 182326 lots, +20148 lots, short positions are 193059 lots, +25948 lots, and the net position is -10733 lots, net short increases
.
Summary: Fundamentally, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises this week was 81.
89%, down 0.
98% from last week and 0.
72% from last year; PVC production enterprises lost 28,200 tons, an increase of 4.
06%
from last week.
The operating rate of production enterprises has declined, and the spot supply of PVC has decreased
.
PVC social inventory increased by 39.
23% month-on-month last week and decreased by 12.
31% year-on-year, indicating insufficient
market demand.
Downstream maintenance just need to purchase
.
Far futures source procurement is not active, and the psychology of high price resistance is enhanced
.
The domestic calcium carbide market stopped falling and stabilized, the market supply was in the stage of gradual consumption, and the downstream purchasing manufacturers increased their demand with the end of maintenance and the increase of load
.
These factors support the price of PVC
.
At present, PVC fundamentals are weak, but it remains to be seen
whether the situation in the Middle East will ferment further.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors trade in
ranges.
