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As of last weekend, the mainstream price of SG-5 in the South China PVC market was 6710 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 10 yuan from the previous week; the SG-5 mainstream price in the East China PVC market was temporarily stable at 6680 yuan
.
"Domestic factories are intensively repaired, supply is limited, and the import volume is expected to decrease, the price of raw material calcium carbide is expected to rise, and the short-term PVC market is expected to be stable and upward
.
Sudden drop in foreign supplies
Sudden drop in foreign suppliesLast week, affected by the "Laura" hurricane, the production of major foreign PVC enterprises was restricted to a certain extent, resulting in a sharp drop in PVC exports and a sharp rise in prices
.
"Before the hurricane, Oxy Chem shut down its 1 million tons/year PVC plant ahead of schedule.
After that, although production resumed, it still reduced some production
.
"Before the hurricane, Oxy Chem shut down its 1 million tons/year PVC plant ahead of schedule.
On September 1, European LNOVYN announced that its Nordic Rafnes vinyl chloride plant was shut down due to force majeure, and PVC production was also subject to certain restrictions, resulting in a decrease in the supply of global export trade and a sharp rise in PVC market prices
.
The Asian PVC market also reacted to force majeure in Europe and the United States
.
On the whole, the rising trend of PVC outer disk prices is obvious, which is expected to drive the domestic PVC market to rise steadily
.
Domestic centralized maintenance
Domestic centralized maintenanceRecently, the domestic PVC installations have been intensively repaired, and the supply of goods has been reduced
.
According to statistics, the operating rate of domestic PVC production enterprises last week was 76.
38%, down 0.
93% from the previous month
.
Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide method PVC enterprises was 77.
21%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.
77% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.
46%; the operating rate of ethylene method PVC enterprises was 72.
5%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.
67%
.
"Last week, the loss of maintenance capacity of domestic PVC production enterprises was 125,700 tons, an increase of 3.
3% from the previous week
.
The scale of PVC maintenance capacity in September is expected to reach 4.
5 million tons/year, mainly including the 250,000-ton/year unit of Ningxia Yingli Te.
, sea level 400,000 tons/year device, Xinjiang Yihua 300,000 tons/year device, Inner Mongolia Yihua calcium carbide method 300,000 tons/year device, Formosa Ningbo 400,000 tons/year device, Tianjin LG 400,000 tons/year device, etc.
With the short-term maintenance of these devices, the PVC market supply will decrease
.
" Shi Lei said
.
At the same time, the reduction of foreign PVC export sources has also promoted the increase in domestic and foreign export demand, and the pace of enterprise inventory digestion has accelerated
.
According to Longzhong data, last week's PVC production inventory decreased by 0.
08% month-on-month, and pre-sale orders increased by 7.
13% month-on-month
.
Social inventories in South China fell slightly, and traders' quotations were firm; Northwest enterprises made up for low prices slightly
.
On the whole, the domestic PVC market has a strong upward atmosphere, and the rising market in the later period can be expected
.
Raw materials fluctuate
Raw materials fluctuate"In the early stage, there was a shortage of supply in the calcium carbide market, and the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was relatively high
.
Traders did not have profit to take the goods, and they were not very motivated
.
At the same time, affected by the heavy rain in the Wuhai area, the loading and transportation of calcium carbide was hindered, and local enterprises accumulated calcium carbide inventory.
Shipping will reduce the ex-factory quotation by 50~60 yuan
.
But I personally think that this is a short-term buffering behavior, and the calcium carbide market will not be significantly reduced in the later stage
.
" Zhang Zhongying, a calcium carbide analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that the calcium carbide market is currently in a micro-balanced stage, and Inner Mongolia Dongxing Chemical's PVC plant has plans to resume production in the near future
.
Once production resumes, the calcium carbide sold by the company in the market in the early stage will be converted to self-use, and the overall market supply will be reduced, which is expected to drive the price of calcium carbide to rise
.
In addition, this year's strict inspection of hazardous chemical transportation will have an impact on the calcium carbide market throughout the year
.
In the second half of the year, the inspection of overloaded vehicles will be more stringent, which will lead to the overall tightness of calcium carbide logistics, and the supply will be affected to a certain extent
.
In addition, transportation costs will also increase accordingly, and calcium carbide prices are expected to rise
.
Zhang Zhongying said that under the influence of the epidemic, some calcium carbide factories were forced to overhaul and shut down due to problems in the capital chain.
In the short term, there may be staged tight supply and insufficient arrival of calcium carbide, and the market as a whole will develop in the direction of tight supply
.
It is expected that the overall calcium carbide price will rise in September, which can provide cost support to the PVC market
.
