PVC plunge momentum is not large, should not be overly bearish

Progress
in epidemic prevention and control in Xinjiang.
Xinjiang is the main production area of PVC, and the prevention and control of some areas is relatively strict, so the labor meeting such as loading and unloading is insufficient, and the impact on shipping is not large for the time being, but it may affect the speed and volume
of shipment.
In the later stage, prevention and control progress is required, and if the shipment is greatly affected, the impact on the inventory and whether it will affect the delivery
will be affected.

U.
S.
-China relations
.
Recently, China and the United States closed their consulates to each other, and the US election is approaching, and there are great variables in Sino-US relations, so the close Sino-US relations will change in
the later period.
I heard that the United States will impose tariffs on China's flooring in August (industry news, there is no written document), if it really taxes the floor, it may have a temporary impact on market sentiment, and the floor will weaken
in the later stage.

Crude oil market
.
The recovery of demand, it is difficult for oil prices to get out of the unilateral market, and the probability of continuing the trend of high volatility is high
.
Central and South America, the Middle East and Africa have fallen one after another, major economic powers such as the United States, Brazil and India are still fighting the epidemic, economic reopening is facing greater uncertainty, and some countries that have previously reopened their economies are facing the risk of
closing again.
On the supply side, OPEC has begun to ease production cuts, and supply is likely to increase
.
Therefore, the market is mainly neutral, and although oil prices are facing a correction, the overall trend of high volatility
continues.

This year's rainy season is long, and the precipitation in the whole country is relatively large, especially in the Yangtze River Basin
.
Frequent and intense precipitation can lead to a weakening
of construction activity.
This can also be seen in the sharp decline in the demand for threaded
watches.
But this also means that once the weather improves, there will be a concentrated explosion of construction demand that was previously delayed by the weather
.
Therefore, the demand for PVC construction industry will be stronger
than the previous month after the plum is released.
Although the supply side has seen an increase in the domestic operating rate, considering that the peak of imports is in June, the probability of imports weakening month-on-month
.
Therefore, it is expected that the supply in August will be flat month-on-month, and the overall supply and demand is expected to improve
month-on-month.

On the whole, there will be no obvious contradiction in the short term PVC fundamentals, and the macro surface is long and short intertwined, but the momentum of the big fall is not large, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish
.