PVC main contract volatility higher, short-term temporary wait-and-see

News: China's PVC pure powder exports in December 2019 were 25,500 tons, down 03,500 tons from November and 22,500 tons from last year, and the cumulative export from January to December was 506,700 tons, down 87,200 tons from 2018
.
December coincided with the poor transportation of domestic PVC, the shortage of supply, and there was no surplus source for export, so it fell
month-on-month.

Spot market: the downstream resumption time is uncertain, the transaction volume of Guangzhou PVC market is light during the day, and the mainstream quotation of calcium carbide type 5 is 6300-6420 yuan / ton
.
Dagu 1000 type 6750 yuan / ton, real negotiation
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 4755 lots, intraday -0 lots
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 130079 lots, +6537 lots, short positions are 123692 lots, +5625 lots, and the net position is 6387 lots, net long increases
.

Summary: After the holiday, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises fell back to 70.
71%, down 3.
99% from last week and 14.
03% lower than the same period last year; It shows that the production enterprises after the holiday have significantly reduced their burden
.
However, due to the impact of transportation restrictions and sluggish downstream demand, PVC social inventory increased by 68.
42% month-on-month and decreased by 8.
83%
year-on-year.
On the demand side, after the Lantern Festival, the resumption rate of downstream enterprises is still not high, and many regions have issued notices that all new and under construction sites need to be postponed
.
Therefore, most downstream enterprises have not yet set the start time, and the willingness to stock is weak
.
At present, it is in the off-season of PVC demand, downstream demand is insufficient, coupled with the need to delay the start of downstream construction, it is expected that the sluggish downstream demand will inhibit the price of
PVC.
Investors are advised not to chase long
for the time being.