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With the cooling of the capital market, the futures market is weak and downward, and the probability of spot prices being affected by futures adjustment is greater, and it has also begun to fluctuate and pullback
.
PVC futures upward and downward space, need to pay attention to liquidity and terminal demand recovery, the current upstream production enterprises inventory pressure is not large, strong willingness to raise prices, downstream procurement is more cautious, continue to bargain replenishment state, fundamental changes are not much
.
Recently, the operating rate of upstream manufacturers has declined, but the overall operating rate is still at a high level
.
As of July 17, the overall operating load of PVC was 75.
5%, down 2.
42% month-on-month and 1.
3%
year-on-year.
Among them, the calcium carbide method started 75.
04%, and the ethylene method started 77.
66%.
In terms of maintenance, the loss reduction of production enterprises last week was 131,300 tons, an increase of 10.
24% month-on-month, and the manufacturers of maintenance Taizhou Liancheng, Inner Mongolia Yili, and Shanxi Yushe have resumed driving, This week, Inner Mongolia Junzheng began to overhaul the Mengxi plant on July 20, and it is expected to end on the 20th, but due to the long-term shutdown of Dongxing, Xiyang Chemical and other enterprises from April last year, and the long-term shutdown of Salt Lake in February this year, the loss reduction this year has increased
significantly compared with the same period last year.
After the epidemic improved, the completion of real estate has basically recovered to the level of the same period last year, and after June, due to the continuous rainfall in the south, real estate construction starts have declined
.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, in the first half of 2020, the total number of new housing units in the 66 cities fell by 16.
0% year-on-year, and the transaction area fell by 14.
0% year-on-year.
The recent flood situation in southern China has restricted the order volume of PVC downstream products enterprises to a certain extent, and the start of construction in some downstream fields has fallen
slightly.
Soft product ponchos, films and other production enterprises mostly produce according to orders, and the operating rate is generally lower than the same period
last year.
The operating rate of wire and cable and high-end granulation fields this week was not good, and terminal demand was tepid
.
Economic recovery related policies are conducive to driving the increase in market demand, especially in terms of infrastructure, PVC pipes, profiles, etc.
tend to be stable in the second half of the year, and there are good expectations, after high temperature weather, with the arrival of the traditional consumption season of gold nine silver ten, it will also help to increase the consumption
of PVC.
PVC has a medium and long-term good foundation, but the recent supply and demand are weak, the current market sentiment is difficult to support the PVC price after the sharp rebound and maintain a strong trend, it is expected that the PVC spot price will continue to fluctuate
in the short term.