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After April, PVC supply and demand continued to improve, on the one hand, maintenance efforts gradually increased, and reached a peak in the second quarter, on the other hand, with the weakening of the epidemic, downstream enterprises have gradually recovered, driving the PVC market to pick up, under the promotion of multiple benefits, East China and South China PVC sample inventory continued to decline, and South China supply is relatively tight, upstream enterprises most pre-sale, inventory remains low
.
Data show that on June 12, the inventory of sample warehouses in East China and South China fell by 6.
12% month-on-month and 4.
31%
lower than the same period last year.
However, some insiders are more worried about import pressure, believing that with the rise in domestic PVC prices, the import window will continue to open after April, and it is expected that in the case of the Chinese market taking the lead in recovery, the global low-priced supply will flood into the Chinese market, considering the shipping schedule, the arrival pressure in the second quarter will gradually increase
.
However, from the data of previous years, the monthly import volume of PVC changes are relatively limited, although last year the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Announcement on Terminating the Anti-dumping Final Review Investigation of Imported Polyvinyl Chloride Originating in the United States, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan", since September 29, 2019, anti-dumping duties will no longer be levied on imported PVC originating in the United States, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, but the current domestic PVC industry is already in the stage of overcapacity, and the import dependence is less than 5%.
Even if the import window continued to open in the fourth quarter of last year, the monthly import volume did not increase significantly, so it is estimated that the import increment in June and July is relatively limited, and the rhythm of destocking is expected to continue
driven by demand.
