PVC fundamentals are weak and futures prices are running weakly

Futures market: as of 10.
18, the main force of PVC closed at 5900 yuan / ton, up 0.
51% from the previous month; Top 20 main long positions: 508767 (-1362), short positions: 577385 (-10860), net positions: 68618 (-12244).

Spot and enterprise dynamics: as of 10.
18, East China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6130 yuan / ton (-30); South China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6215 yuan / ton (-25); Shandong Xinfa PVC started normally, shipments were general, the price was reduced, and the 5-type factory reported 6000 yuan / ton; Formosa Plastics Ningbo's 400,000-ton PVC plant started about 90%, mainly waiting for the market, and no quotation will be made
within the day.

Basis: As of 10.
18, South China basis -55; East China basis -60; basis slightly weakened
.

Upstream raw materials: as of 10.
18, North China calcium carbide quotation was 4265 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton higher than the previous day; Shaanxi Lanchar quoted 1576 yuan / ton, no change
from the previous day's price.

Affected by the epidemic in the short term, poor transportation has caused the raw material end to rise, but in the medium and long term, from the perspective of PVC price operation logic, it is also subject to high inventory and sluggish demand
.
There is no upward drive
in sight on the fundamentals for the time being.
Real estate stimulus policies need time to be transmitted, and weakening demand is a high probability event; In the fourth quarter, there was no large-scale shutdown of PVC installations to reduce the burden
.
Therefore, it is not excluded that the gradual entry into the "accumulation" stage
is not excluded.
It is difficult to escape the fate of "excess" in the 01 contract
.

Combined with the general environment and the weak fundamentals of PVC, the "bottom" should not be lightly said, and the recent position of the main PVC contract is considered to maintain a "neutral wait-and-see" view
from the perspective of risk.