Pure benzene: volume and price cooperation steadily push up

　　Since the beginning of this year, the domestic pure benzene market has seen a steady rise similar to the first half of last year
.
By mid-June, the price of pure benzene was pushed up to the highest point.
The mainstream transaction price in various places was 9,600~9,800 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the listed price of Sinopec once reached 10,000 yuan
.
As of the end of June, the domestic mainstream transaction price of pure benzene remained at around 9,500 yuan, an increase of 30% in the first half of the year
.

　　Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator: From strong to weak into a stage trend

　　In the first half of the year, the domestic pure benzene market showed a steady rise
.
The pure benzene market started from a periodical low at the beginning of the year, and went up all the way under the background of better coordination of volume and price, reaching a new high in the past two years in June
.
At the end of half a year, due to the deviation of the balance of supply and demand, it began to turn from strong to weak
.

　　In the first half of the year, the pure benzene market showed two characteristics
.
One is the shock due to the impact of the international situation
.
In the first node, at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter, international crude oil was pushed up to $139 per barrel
.
The pure benzene market showed a rapid rise and rapid decline in early March, but due to the stability of the domestic pure benzene supply and demand system and the substantial increase in production capacity in recent years, it did not have a great impact on the domestic market, and then steadily rose again
.
The second node was at the end of the second quarter, when the international crude oil price fell below US$100/barrel, and the pure benzene market was once again bearish by the industry
.

　　The second is that in the first half of the year, there was not too much false inflation in the pure benzene market, and the price increase at each stage was matched by a certain amount, showing a steady upward trend
.
The hype factor of traders is relatively weakened
.

　　In addition, at the end of the second quarter, the operating rate of domestic pure benzene plants has increased, while downstream consumption is in the off-season, and the pure benzene market has turned from strong to weak, becoming a phased trend
.

　　Wei Jianyang, general manager of Nanjing Kaiyan Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
: The key node may be in July

　　According to customs statistics, from January to May this year, the cumulative import volume of pure benzene in China was 1.
3928 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.
51%; while the total export volume was only 104.
9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 99.
1%
.

　　The domestic market and foreign market prices fully demonstrate that the export of pure benzene this year can be ignored
.
Since the beginning of this year, the trend of the foreign market has been basically synchronized with the development trend of the domestic market, but the price has always been high inside and low outside
.
This is related to the decline in external dependence after the continuous growth of domestic pure benzene production capacity
.
At the same time, the steady growth of downstream demand has further supported the strength of the domestic benzene market
.
However, with the entry of low-priced foreign sources, the port inventory also began to gradually increase in late June, which had a negative impact on the domestic benzene market
.
This trend is expected to fully manifest in the third quarter
.

　　From the downstream point of view, the downstream demand was relatively stable in the first five months, maintaining a good operating rate, which became the main factor supporting the rise of the pure benzene market
.
In June, more than 80% of downstream products entered a state of loss
.
For example, the loss of maleic anhydride product per ton even reaches more than 2,000 yuan, limiting production and insuring price has become a phased strategy for enterprises to cope with the market decline
.
In addition, the operating rates of downstream styrene, cyclohexanone, phenol, maleic anhydride, caprolactam and other enterprises have declined, which has a negative impact on the market outlook of pure benzene.
July may be a key adjustment node
.

　　Zhang Aiping, Market Analyst of Henan Chemical Network: Return to the Box

　　In the first half of the year, the domestic pure benzene market has experienced a steady increase
.
Although there are factors such as the international situation and the epidemic situation, the overall increase in crude oil, downstream chemical product markets and the international and domestic macroeconomic situation has not been constrained by the market supply and demand laws
.
Therefore, in the whole process of pure benzene rising, except for the short-term shock in early March, the other time is basically a steady upward trend
.

　　Since the rise of the pure benzene market at the beginning of the year, each stage has been matched by volume.
The weakening in the middle and late June also started from the shrinking of the trading volume
.
If the supply continues to increase in the third quarter and the demand does not increase significantly, the benzene market will continue to adjust downwards to find support
.
However, as of July, the downstream styrene, aniline, cyclohexanone, caprolactam and other units will be restarted after maintenance, which can offset some of the new production capacity of pure benzene.
fell
.
It is expected that the pure benzene market is expected to enter the pattern of box finishing in July, and the price will run at 8,000-9,000 yuan
.

　　As a bulk organic basic chemical raw material, pure benzene is closely related to the international situation, energy market, and macroeconomic situation
.
Once a larger objective influencing factor appears, the possibility of continuous adjustment of the pure benzene market in the second half of the year cannot be ruled out
.