Prospects of soybean market in 2002

Introduction: After China's official accession to the world trade organization, the detailed rules of the GM regulations will also have an impact on the import and export and production and operation in 2002 Under such a policy background, based on the expectation that the output of this year and the import volume of next year may decrease, it is expected that the soybean market supply in 2001 / 2002 will decrease by 1.38 million tons compared with the previous year, with a decrease of 1.38 million tons 4%, the first decline in soybean supply in recent years It is expected that soybean oil imports will increase and soybean oil prices will continue to decline under the influence of imports Due to the increase of soybean oil import, the amount of soybean oil squeezed will show a negative growth, reducing to about 18 million 690 thousand tons, a decrease of 2% compared with the previous year The consumption of soybeans still maintained an 8% growth rate Soybean exports will increase to 400000 tons It is predicted that soybean consumption will reach 27.61 million tons in 2001 / 2002, only 0.8% higher than that of the previous year, the smallest increase in recent years In 2001 / 2002, the soybean stock will be reduced by 1.16 million tons, the contradiction between the supply and demand in the soybean market will be eased, and the soybean price is likely to pick up Due to the decrease of soybean oil, the decrease of soybean meal supply will lead to the increase of soybean meal import, which is beneficial to the recovery of soybean meal price But if the policy of abolishing the value-added tax on soybean meal is introduced, the soybean meal import will increase rapidly, so the soybean crushing rate will be lower and the price will be difficult to recover.