Prospects of domestic corn market in 2002

Introduction: according to the news of fude.com on January 28, the following is the outlook of the northern grain market of Dalian on the corn market in 2002: (1) in 2001 / 02 (October 2001 to September 2002), the supply and demand pattern of corn in China still exceeded the demand It is estimated that the new supply of corn in China (the new supply is the total of output and import, excluding the beginning inventory) will reach 112.2 million tons, of which the new output (i.e the output in 2001) is estimated to be 110.2 million tons and the import volume is estimated to be 2 million tons Since the second half of 2001, the market price of corn in China has declined significantly, while the price of feed wheat has risen steadily due to the growth of demand Therefore, the price comparison between corn and wheat has changed significantly since 2001 / 02 Some feed and breeding enterprises that used a lot of wheat in 2000 / 01 have started to consume corn again Therefore, it is estimated that Annual feed corn consumption will increase to 92 million tons In 2001 / 02, China's industrial consumption (such as corn starch, alcohol, maltose, citric acid industry) is estimated to be 10.5 million tons of corn In the field of export, due to the recent cancellation of one million tons of corn export contract, the export quantity of corn in 2001 / 02 is expected to drop to 2 million tons Meanwhile, the corn demand of South Korea and other corn importing countries is expected to change little It is expected that after entering the second quarter of 2002, the export quantity of corn in China will reduce to a lower level In 2001 / 02, China's total corn consumption is expected to reach 122.7 million tons, and the ending balance of this year is expected to be - 10.47 million tons, that is, the corn stock in September 2002 is expected to be 10.47 million tons less than that in September 2001 It is predicted that the actual stock of corn in China will remain at a high level, and the situation of oversupply will not change substantially (2) outlook on the import and export situation of corn 2002 is the first year of China's accession to the WTO, and China will begin to fulfill its commitments of accession to the WTO The Chinese government promised to implement tariff quota management on corn import next year After the change of strict corn import management system, corn import will definitely increase and increase the supply pressure of domestic corn market In 2002, the tariff quota of 5.85 million tons was only the access quantity within the quota rather than the import obligation Then, after opening the domestic corn market in 2002, how many quantities of corn did our Congress import? In this regard, all aspects are very concerned From the perspective of market: after this round of decline in the price of domestic corn, the current price level is still slightly higher than that of imported corn It is understood recently that grain enterprises in the sales area are very concerned about the problem of imported corn At the end of December, the delivery price of new medium-sized corn in Huanghuai area of North China to Guangzhou station of Guangdong Province was 1090 yuan / ton; the delivery price of old corn in Northeast China to Guangzhou port was 1120 yuan / ton At the end of December, the price of yellow corn No.2 from the United States to the port in the south of China was about 112 US dollars / ton Based on this price, the duty paid price of the port is roughly as follows: the duty paid price within the quota = 112 × 1.01 (tariff) × 1.13 (value added tax) × 1.001003009 (insurance premium) × 8.3 + 90 yuan (various expenses of ship unloading and port area) = 1152 yuan / ton Due to quality reasons, compared with domestic corn, imported corn has a quality difference of about 50 yuan per ton When the difference between the duty paid price of imported corn at the port and the delivery price of domestic corn at the port is less than 50 yuan, the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase imported corn will be higher If the price difference is more than 50 yuan / ton, the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase corn will be reduced, or even not to purchase corn At the end of December, the price of new corn in Huanghuai area of North China, Guangdong Province, was about 60 yuan / ton lower than that of imported corn, and the price of old corn from Northeast China was about 30 yuan lower than that of imported corn That is to say, in the southern sales area, the price level of the northeast old corn transported to the port and the price level of the new corn in the North China Huanghuai region are slightly higher than the calculated price level of the imported corn From the analysis of supply and demand balance: in recent years, China's corn has maintained a high level of export In addition to the factors of subsidies, abundant supply in the domestic market is also a necessary material condition After China's accession to the WTO, as the export subsidies of corn are cancelled, the export volume will be reduced compared with that before China's accession to the WTO However, the decrease in export will make the situation of abundant corn supply more stable, which sets a threshold for the import of corn into China The supply pressure in the domestic market will limit the quantity of corn import Analysis from the use of quotas: in 2002, the use of quotas in the state sector was 68% and in the private sector 32% If the state-owned sector can import corn according to the needs of the domestic market, and can import corn into the reserve first, to some extent, it can avoid the direct impact on the domestic market Now the worry is that, due to the low circulation efficiency of domestic corn and the large loss and loss in the transportation process, the corn users in the southern sales area will prefer to use imported corn at the same price level From the aspect of import management: in order to ensure the food safety in China, the State Council has promulgated the regulations on the safety management of genetically modified agricultural products The state will carry out necessary management on the import of genetically modified soybeans and corn, which is estimated to have a certain restrictive effect on the import of corn (3) China's corn export will face greater difficulties Since the export subsidies of corn will be cancelled after China's accession to the WTO, China's corn export will face greater difficulties Once the export is reduced, it will have a huge impact on China's market From the current market situation, in 2002, the southern sales area will definitely increase corn import If the export of corn in the production area should also be subsidized and unsustainable, the corn inventory pressure will not be reduced, which will have a huge impact on the domestic market The impact is manifested in two aspects: one is to affect the domestic price, reduce the price of corn to the level that affects production, and make the domestic corn output drop again; the other is to actively adjust the structure of the main sales area and let the market be occupied by imported corn, which brings great pressure to the northeast region that continues to implement the policy of open purchase of farmers' surplus grain at the protective price Under the framework of WTO, the direct export subsidy policy will not be allowed, the policy space for the government to choose to directly encourage exports will be narrowed, and other hidden direct incentive policies, such as transportation cost subsidies, will not be able to undertake the task of exporting millions of tons of corn For this reason, the northern production areas should seek reasonable policies permitted by rules and take practical measures to support corn production and expand corn export.