World Poultry Meat Market Outlook

Introduction: new page 1 in the recently published world agricultural market outlook (2002-2009), the European Union analyzed and predicted the world poultry market pattern in the next seven years This analysis is based on the results of agricultural development assessments conducted by some major forecasting agencies and within the EU JRA from 2001 to 2009, it is expected that the international poultry market is still optimistic, and all markets are basically showing a steady growth trend If the growth of poultry market is affected by the poultry disease crisis in some areas in the short term, the poultry market as a whole benefits from the outbreak of BSE and FMD It is expected that the world poultry production and consumption will continue to grow in the medium term, with a growth rate higher than that of beef and pork production and consumption, although in the 1990s, poultry production and consumption were lower than that of beef and pork JRA poultry market expansion is driven by low cost of production (relative to beef and pork production) and consumption trends in many parts of the world (related to the shift to Western-style eating habits and health considerations) JRA predicts that the world poultry production and consumption will increase significantly in the next seven years, with a growth rate of slightly less than 20%, i.e an average annual growth of about 2% Production in countries and regions with high poultry production (such as the United States, China, the European Union, Brazil and Mexico) will continue to grow as domestic and global demand increases In general, most of the growth in poultry production and consumption comes from developing countries JRA expects that in the medium term, the share of poultry consumption in meat consumption will increase in most countries, mainly due to the price advantage of poultry relative to beef and pork, the increase of income and the change of food demand mode in many countries Therefore, in many countries with relatively low per capita poultry consumption (such as China, Mexico, Russia and Eastern Europe), the improvement of economic situation is expected to promote the development of poultry processing industry in the first place In addition, as consumption trends continue to change, poultry consumption in some countries with high per capita consumption will also increase, albeit moderately JRA, despite the rapid growth of poultry consumption in many countries (such as China and the Middle East), it is expected that the growth of poultry production will be small, and the increased demand will lead to a strong growth momentum of trade volume (from 2001 to 2009, USDA forecasts an average annual growth of 3%, and FAPRI forecasts an average annual growth of 4%) The increase of trade volume of divided poultry meat is greater than that of whole poultry JRA: the consumption of poultry meat in China exceeds the domestic production, showing a sustained growth trend, and the import volume is expected to increase According to USDA forecast, the net import of poultry meat in China will be about 569000 tons by 2009, while OECD and FAPRI expect that in the medium term, the import of poultry meat in China will be strong, reaching 741000 tons (OECD) and 1041000 tons (FAPRI) China's poultry imports reflect China's consumption preference for a variety of cheap poultry products (such as chicken feet, wings and chicken water), which complement each other's demand for poultry products in many countries USDA and FAPRI predict that further trade liberalization will promote Mexico's net import of poultry, but OECD predicts that Mexico's net import of poultry will stagnate, which is due to the vertical integration of domestic poultry industry and the reduction of poultry production costs JRA Russia is another big market for poultry exports Due to the lack of investment and low efficiency, domestic poultry production in Russia is growing slowly, and it is expected that the growth of poultry consumption will be met by increasing imports USDA and OECD forecast that the import of poultry meat in Russia will reach 500000 tons, but FAPRI predicted that the consumption of poultry meat in Russia will be moderate, and the net import of poultry meat in Russia will be less than 120000 tons by 2009 The prediction of Russia's medium-term economic and political situation constitutes a source of uncertainty, as Russia's economic and political prospects have an impact not only on Russian poultry imports, but also on global poultry trade All of JRA's forecasting agencies predict that Brazil, the United States and Thailand will greatly benefit from the expected growth in poultry trade FAPRI expects Brazil's exports to be supported by a huge investment in broiler production in central and western Brazil These investments are driven by fiscal and subsidy policies and the availability of large quantities of cheap feed grains Brazil will also benefit from devaluation, which is expected to increase its share of poultry in the international market U.S poultry exports continue to benefit from a competitive production structure through vertical consolidation, high-tech, low-cost feed products, and efficient transportation and storage equipment In addition, competition from some countries is expected to capture the share of growth in other major poultry export regions, such as the European Union JRA expects poultry prices to rise slightly in the medium term, supported by strong demand However, the rapid growth of emerging low-cost exporting countries and poultry production (driven by moderate feed prices), further restructuring of the poultry production structure and further improvement of productivity will alleviate the pressure and trend of rising world poultry prices in the next seven years JRA