Prospect of corn market situation -- it is difficult to climb again in the later stage

Introduction: at present, there are new changes in the domestic corn market After experiencing the market situation of continuous increase in the early stage, the domestic corn price has stagnated, and a few regional prices have fallen By the end of April, according to the past years, China's feed industry and breeding industry will gradually enter the peak season of consumption However, new changes have taken place in the market this year The spread of SARS in major cities in China has brought impact on the grain market Where will the price of domestic corn market go in the later period? It has become a topic of concern for the industry at this stage In this regard, the author makes an analysis based on several main aspects affecting the domestic corn market The specific analysis is as follows: QMD (I) factors supporting the price of corn: QMD 1 The export volume in March remains high, and the market support effect remains unchanged At present, the export situation of corn has remained good Although the hearsay policy has changed, China's subsidies for corn export continue to go on as normal In March, China exported 1.596 million tons of corn, an increase of 45% year on year It is reported that good export sales will continue into the third quarter of 2003 The latest sales price is US $105 / ton FOB China, basically the same as the price in the past few months In recent months, domestic grain prices have risen, mainly because of seasonality Corn and wheat prices are still less than 5% higher than last year Later, the government will continue to be keen on export subsidies According to Chinese traders, the government has lowered the financial support for corn export At present, the level of financial support is about 330 yuan per ton (1 US dollar = 8.28 yuan), and 365 yuan per ton in 2002 Although the level of support has declined, however, as the world corn price tends to rise, China has the ability to raise the price of corn in the export market, and still keep the price competitive, providing space for the government to reduce financial support It can be seen that the export volume of corn in China will maintain a steady growth trend with the strong support of the government, and the support effect on the domestic corn spot market will not be reduced QMD 2 Stable development of deep processing industry and increase of corn consumption The stable development of QMD corn deep processing industry will promote the increase of corn consumption In recent years, the output of corn deep processing products in China has grown rapidly Corn deep processing is a key industry supported by the state The product structure of corn deep processing in China remains relatively stable, and the future demand prospects are promising Processing feed is still the most important use of corn, which accounts for 70% - 80% of the total corn consumption It is particularly noteworthy that China's corn deep processing field is not only limited to food, but also has begun to target alternative energy sources, that is, ethanol is produced through corn deep processing, which is added to gasoline to become automobile fuel According to the "Tenth Five Year Plan" of the national food industry, during the "Tenth Five Year Plan" period, the total output of starch should reach 7 million tons, and the output of corn breakfast food, leisure food, convenience food and other corn terminal food should reach 10 million tons At that time, the amount of corn converted from industrial corn products is expected to reach 80% of the corn commodity, and the amount of corn converted from deep-processing corn products is expected to reach about 25% The steady development of deep processing industry will stimulate the increase of corn consumption and promote the sound development of the market QMD 3 The dry climate in Northeast China is still the same, and the market impetus is enhanced As QMD entered into April, corn and soybean planting began to spread in large areas from south to North in Northeast China, and the seeding work was progressing smoothly The sowing of spring wheat has been largely completed According to the survey results of the relevant departments, in the first ten days of Northeast China, small to moderate rain appeared in most areas, which improved the soil moisture before sowing, but then the gale weather also led to the loss of part of the soil moisture The meteorological ten day report shows that the soil moisture in Northeast China continued to improve in the first ten days of April compared with the end of March, especially in the west of Jilin Province and the southwest of Heilongjiang Province The reason is that the favorable precipitation appeared in most parts of Northeast China in the first ten days of April At present, the moisture content is suitable in most areas of the middle and eastern part of Northeast China, and the area of soil over wet area is gradually shrinking and mainly concentrated in Sanjiang plain area, but the drought in some areas still hasn't changed Recently, according to the Agricultural Committee of Jilin Province, at present, the corn sowing schedule in Jilin Province is estimated to be 1 / 3 completed However, the drought in the west of Jilin Province is still relatively serious and there is still a lack of precipitation in the near future Judging from the weather situation, the drought in Northeast China is still serious this year, and the drought relief work is still arduous The change of weather conditions in the later period will directly affect the output of corn in China this year, and will also have a volatility impact on the market price QMD 4 The stock quantity is gradually reduced and the market environment is improving day by day QMD according to the data of relevant departments, it is estimated that in 2002 / 03 (October / September), China's corn harvest area will be 24.5 million hectares, the beginning inventory will be 72.616 million tons, the output will be 123 million tons, the total annual market import will be 50000 tons, the total supply will be 19566.6 million tons, the total export will be 12 million tons, the domestic feed consumption will be 95 million tons, and the total domestic consumption will be 12 million tons 122 million tons, ending inventory of 61.666 million tons It is expected that in 2003 / 04 (October / September), China's corn harvest area will be 24.3 million hectares, the beginning inventory will be 61.666 million tons, the output will be 122 million tons, the market annual total import will be 50000 tons, the total supply will be 1837.16 million tons, the total export will be 12 million tons, the domestic feed consumption will be 97 million tons, the domestic consumption will be 124 million tons, and the ending inventory will be 477.16 million tons Ten thousand tons It is not difficult to see from the data that under the condition of stable domestic supply and steady growth of domestic corn consumption, China's corn inventory level is gradually declining, which will build a good development environment for the corn market and promote the market price QMD (2) factors of restraining corn price: QMD At present, the prevention of SARS is a major task at present Governments at all levels have shifted the focus of their work A series of activities, such as Chen Hualiang bidding fair and grain forum exchange meeting, have been postponed The spread of the disease has led to a series of market changes, especially the impact on the corn market It can be said that "SARS" has become a good corn price trend in the early stage and continues to climb The specific situation is as follows: the export market of QMD has been impacted: according to the relevant departments, the losses caused by SARS to the breeding industry are still difficult to count for the time being Due to SARS, the export of chicken, pork and other products in China has been completely stopped, and the products in the agricultural trade market have also been shunned by consumers The turnover of catering industry in major cities has been greatly reduced However, the situation of annual domestic trade corn demand growth before May 1st Festival did not appear this year, and the disease affected the seasonal growth of livestock demand Some traders said they were worried that SARS would affect the competitive position of the domestic corn market in the international market, and the later impact was difficult to estimate Poor market demand in QMD sales area: at present, the demand of corn as feedstuff material in China is seriously affected In the early stage, the corn sent from northeast to Guangdong and other places was unsalable Although some dealers lowered their prices, the market is still not smooth As the cost of shipping corn to the port in Northeast China has been locked, the space for the sales price to fall again is very small, and the enthusiasm of purchasing enterprises has been seriously frustrated Although it is near May Day, the festival atmosphere has been completely covered up QMD production area market export reduction: at the same time, the situation of the production area is also affected The demand of the southern market is not strong, the number of domestic trade in the north is significantly reduced, and the enthusiasm of sales is frustrated From the perspective of price performance, due to the depletion of grain resources in the purchase market, the large-scale purchase in Northeast China has basically stopped, and the purchase price has remained stable From the perspective of sales price, due to the poor market, the quantity of domestic and foreign transportation in the province has been greatly reduced, and the sales price remains at the previous level QMD overall, although the domestic corn market promotion factors still exist, but under the influence of "SARS", the market price is unable to find a reasonable basis point of increase after losing the strong demand market, and the price trend remains stable In the short term, "SARS" disease is difficult to be effectively controlled, the impact on feed demand will continue, the corn market demand peak season is difficult to form in a real sense, the late price trend is not optimistic qmd   qmd