Prospect and analysis of the implementation of China's genetically modified regulations

Introduction: With the promotion of the implementation date of China's GM regulations on March 20, there are still many uncertainties in the market's understanding of the GM regulations However, it can be preliminarily determined that China's total soybean imports in the second quarter of this year are expected to decline due to the impact of the implementation of the GM regulations, but it is not expected that American soybean imports will be greatly affected The reason lies in the implementation of China's genetically modified regulations and rules, which may result in the following results I according to the provisions of the genetically modified regulations, the relevant departments began to officially accept the application for the genetically modified safety certificate on March 30, and the relevant departments can reply whether to reply or not within 90 days at the latest, i.e before June 30 The second batch of applications will wait until September 30, at the latest on December 31 That is to say, the quantity and progress of soybean imports in the second quarter will largely depend on which countries and genetically modified soybeans can obtain the first safety certificate Because most of the genetically modified soybeans in the United States are round ready varieties produced by Monsanto Company, according to the regulations, as long as the same genetically modified soybeans get safety certification, it will be convenient for similar soybeans to apply in the future By simplifying the procedures and providing copies of the original certificates, the approval procedures can be accelerated Therefore, it can be predicted that the share of countries in China's soybean import in the second quarter will depend on which country's GM soybeans obtain the safety certificate first 2 It is expected that the time for us soybean import to obtain safety certificate is the fastest, for the following reasons: the main purpose of applying for safety certification is to provide relevant technical information for developers, which is relatively beneficial to us soybean importers After all, genetically modified soybeans are basically developed by US companies, and it is inherently beneficial to provide relevant information It is very difficult for importers and traders to provide a large number of technical data needed to apply for safety certificates Secondly, when applying for the safety certificate of genetically modified soybean, the government of the country of origin shall also provide relevant certificates to show that the soybean has been planted and sold in the country The Argentinean government is now in the grip of financial and political crisis The devaluation of the Argentine Peso failed to stabilize, leading to the continuous stagnation of agricultural exports Brazil is even more embarrassed, because the Brazilian government does not admit that it grows genetically modified soybeans in its own country Where to start with providing relevant documents! From this perspective, American soybean exporters have strong support from their own governments and industry associations, believing that they have innate advantages over South America This means that once the safety certificate of American soybean is obtained, other importers will follow the example of application, which will lead the market import to the United States, and put the South American soybean which should be in the peak season of sales aside 3 In the long run, the regulations are expected to be a fine adjustment button for the Chinese government to regulate soybean imports After China's accession to the WTO, it is more and more necessary for China to rely on international practices and regulations to manage and control trade, rather than on policies, so as not to be branded as a non-tariff trade barrier Looking at the world, all major grain and food importing countries are sparing no effort to promote the management of genetically modified products Taking the EU as an example, the safety assessment of transgenic products has been carried out for more than ten years, and no clear approval has been given China, as the fourth largest producer of transgenic products in the world, planted 1.5 million hectares of transgenic cotton in 2001 China's export of genetically modified products also met with blindness In fact, all countries are trying to make use of the characteristics of genetically modified products with their own interests, try their best to take their benefits and use them for our own purposes, while promoting their harm and refusing to enter the country It can be predicted that in the future, China will, on the one hand, increase its research and application of genetically modified crops to contribute to China's agricultural development; on the other hand, China will implement reasonable management of the import of genetically modified products to protect its agriculture from excessive impact At present, the market only focuses on soybeans, but it is expected that the market will also focus on corn and other agricultural products soon Since 1996, the planting area of genetically modified crops in the world has increased 30 times, reaching 50 million hectares, according to ISAAA It can be said that genetically modified products will continue to be a hot topic in the future world food trade Therefore, from the perspective of national security and social stability, it is of strategic significance for China to implement the genetically modified regulations, rather than simply to restrict the import of soybeans.