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On June 21, the negotiated ex-factory price of propylene oxide in the Shandong market was 13,100 yuan (ton price, the same below), a drop of nearly 5,900 yuan from the high of 19,000 yuan in mid-May, a drop of 45%
.
"Currently, domestic installations are operating at high load, and the East China market has loose supply, and downstream polyether demand is off-season.
Although the raw material guarantee is stable, it is difficult to provide cost support.
The short-term propylene oxide market is expected to be dominated by weak shocks
.
" Zhongyu Information Propylene Oxide Analyst Chen Xiaohan analyzed that
Loose supply in East China
Loose supply in East China Loose supply in East ChinaFrom June to July, the domestic propylene oxide plant basically operated at a high load, and the market supply was sufficient
.
In particular, East China, the second largest production area, has been affected by the increase in new production capacity and the inflow of external sources, and the supply has become more relaxed
"The sources of increased domestic trade in East China mainly come from South China and Northeast China
.
As the East China market has superior geographical conditions, it is convenient for imported sources to enter.
"From the perspective of device operation, 8 sets of domestic propylene oxide devices are operating at full capacity, and most of the devices have no short-term maintenance plans.
The amount of imported goods is also expected to increase compared with the previous two months.
On the whole, the domestic propylene oxide supply will continue to be maintained.
High level
.
" Chen Xiaohan said
Demand is in the off-season
Demand is in the off-season Demand is in the off-season Polyether polyol (polyether) for the production of polyurethane foam is the most important downstream area of propylene oxide, and the demand accounts for more than 70%
.
"June to July is the low season in the polyether market, and affected by the rebound of the epidemic in many Southeast Asian countries, the operating rate of some overseas installations has declined, and the overall demand growth has been weak
From the perspective of domestic trade, affected by the epidemic and power curtailment in southern China, the downstream sponge factories are not very enthusiastic about entering the market, and they are transmitted to the upstream, raw material prices continue to decline, and the polyether market is relatively flat
.
The weak demand has led to a clear pattern of oversupply in the propylene oxide market
"The polyether market stabilized after the shock last weekend
.
From the current point of view, the downstream phased orders pending delivery still have some support for the short-term market
Narrowing profit margins
Narrowing profit margins Narrowing profit margins While the price of propylene oxide has fallen, its main raw materials have remained relatively stable, directly squeezing the profitability of production companies
.
On June 21, the price of raw material propylene remained at 7800-7900 yuan, and the price of liquid chlorine rebounded to 1200-1400 yuan
"The renewed positive progress of the Iranian nuclear issue negotiations restrained crude oil growth
.
On June 18, China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2108 fell by 8.
7 yuan/barrel to 449.
9 yuan/barrel
.
The Shandong propylene market remained stable at the end of last week, and production companies continued to support.
Price willingness is strong, downstream factories are generally
motivated to buy orders, and the market’s wait-and-see sentiment has increased.
It is expected that the short-term propylene market has a higher probability of weak operation .
" Ren Xiaona said
.
In terms of liquid chlorine, after continuous downward adjustments, the North China market was mainly weak and stable for a short period of time; the East China region was generally selling goods, and the main downstream methane installations in northern Jiangsu increased the load, and the liquid chlorine market remained stable for a short time
.
"The current cost of chlorohydrin propylene oxide production enterprises is around 10,700 yuan.
With the price of raw materials maintained and product prices lower, the profit margin of the enterprise has been reduced to 2,400 yuan, which is significantly narrower than the profit margin in mid-May
.
" Chen Xiaohan said
.
