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    Home > Chemicals Industry > New Chemical Materials > Production capacity is seriously constrained during the year, and the long-term bullish idea of aluminum prices remains unchanged

    Production capacity is seriously constrained during the year, and the long-term bullish idea of aluminum prices remains unchanged

    • Last Update: 2022-12-22
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    As of the close of 3 p.
    m.
    on Friday, the Shanghai aluminum main 2110 contract closed up 20110, up 70, or 0.
    35%.

    In the new round of Fed meetings within the week, most officials proposed that the follow-up or will gradually reduce QE expectations, causing market panic, coupled with the multi-party disturbance of the global epidemic, the macro turmoil pattern reappeared, aluminum prices came under pressure and pulled back, all the way below the 20,000 mark, in addition, due to the slowdown in the destocking range in China, the basic price support has also weakened
    .

    Aluminum prices

    Fundamental consumption is still in the off-season, especially affected by the epidemic, power cuts and other factors, the operating rate in some areas is still affected, of which Henan is more serious, and from the July automobile production situation, the problem of core shortage has not improved, overseas car factories reduce production, exports, July unforged aluminum and aluminum exports of 469,000 tons, continued to improve month-on-month, overseas demand continues to drive exports but price comparison and sea freight suppression is still in place, the subsequent improvement is slow
    .

    The supply disruption continued to expand, and the supply disruption
    in Inner Mongolia continued to expand production due to energy consumption control problems.
    As the time enters the end of August, the peak consumption season is approaching, and consumption will gradually pick up
    .
    The short-term aluminum price logic switched to the macro level, in addition, the third batch of reserves has not yet landed, and the upward trend of aluminum prices has slowed down
    .
    However, in the medium term, the gap in the peak season is large, and there are more provinces with large aluminum production in the provinces with poor energy consumption control in the first half of the year, and the long-term supply should not be overly optimistic
    .

    In the future, the long-term impact of power restrictions on the supply side is still large, the production capacity is seriously limited during the year, the long-term bullish idea of aluminum prices remains unchanged, short-term with the stability of market sentiment and the expectation of peak season consumption, the main force of Shanghai aluminum or once again stand above 20000, the overall trend is still strong, the upper pressure level can see the 20500 mark, the operation can be bought on demand, it is expected that spot aluminum next week or rise
    again.

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