Production and sales gap of nearly 2.8 million tons, pork prices may continue to remain high

In recent days, the "China Agricultural Outlook Conference (7th) " was held in Beijing, the meeting was supported by the Committee of Experts on Market Early Warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, sponsored by the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and co-organized by the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs ruQ released the China Agricultural Outlook Report (2020-2029) and introduced the current agricultural market situation, looking ahead to future market trends Among them, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Agriculture agricultural market analysis and early warning team pork chief analyst Zhou Lin reported on the pork market ruQ in Zhou Lin's view, due to tight pig supply, pig prices increased, 2019 pig prices reached a record high, and in 2020 by the new crown epidemic and pig production capacity decline, pork production and sales gap is expected to expand 32.7% YoY, pig prices will continue to operate at a high level, pork production capacity is expected to return to the year-round level by the end of 2021, prices can fall ruQ domestic pig stocks continued to decline, imports of pork surged year-on-year
ruQ China is currently the world's largest consumer of pork, accounting for about two-thirds of household meat consumption "However, the pig market in 2019 was affected by the African swine plague outbreak, the pig cycle and the unreasonable ban on breeding in some areas, resulting in a sustained and deep decline in pig production capacity in the first three quarters." Zhou Lin said that it was not until the fourth quarter that the central government introduced a policy of stable pig production and supply protection began to stop falling and recover ruQ According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Monitoring, in October can breed sow column stock stopped falling, increased by 0.6% month-on-month, in November and December increased by 4% and 2.2% month-on-month, respectively, pig stock followed by the growth of the pig stock, the number of pig stocks increased by 2% month-on-month in November, and increased by 16.6% month-on-month in December Finally, in 2019, 544 million pigs were produced, down 21.6% from the previous year, while the number of pigs out of the first three quarters fell by 5.7%, 7.0% and 40.4% year-on-year, respectively, and narrowed to 32.1% in the fourth quarter ruQ from the price point of view, Zhou Lin said that due to the january and February market sell-off phenomenon, resulting in the fall in live pig prices, but in March, as the pig stock continued to reduce, the market supply tight prices continued to climb, and in November reached a peak high, and then with the gradual recovery of pig production capacity, and near the end of the year, live pig column volume increased significantly, driving live pigs and pork prices to a small decline ruQ", "If the sub-region, the annual increase in pig prices in different regions of the country is more than 95%, the main sales area of Guangdong rose the most, the annual increase of more than 25 yuan / kg , the main production area of the East three provinces rose the highest, more than 22 yuan / kg Zhou Lin said that in 2019, the average price of live pigs and pork markets in China was 21.16 yuan/kg (up 63.3 percent year-on-year) and 33.73 yuan/kg (up 50.2 percent year-on-year) ruQ pork consumption fell to 44.63 million tons in 2019 due to a number of factors such as rising prices, a decrease of 19.1% over the previous year Per capita apparent consumption was 31.88 kg, a decrease of 19.4 per cent over the previous year In 2019, pork production reached only 42.55 million tons, and the gap between supply and demand widened according to the statistics of ruQ, pork production in 2019 reached 42.55 million tons, down 21.3% YoY, from different quarters, the scale of pork production declined quarter by quarter, including the first quarter and the second quarter of production declined by less than 6%, the third quarter showed a sharp decline in output, down more than 42%, the fourth quarter pork production of 10.74 million tons, a decline narrowed to 31.2% RuQ Zhou Lin said that due to the shortage of domestic supply, combined with a sharp rise in pork prices, a surge in import profits, as well as tariff reductions, overseas production enterprises in China to speed up the pace of registration, all kinds of enterprises from the international market to import pork enthusiasm greatly increased according to the ruQ General Administration of Customs, the total imports of pork in reached 3.13 million tons in 2019, an
increase of 45.2% year-on-year, with pork increasing by 67.2% (1.99 million tons) and pig debris by 17.9% (1.13 million tons) For the year, pork imports rose month-on-month, to 269.8 million tons in December, up 114.9 percent from January and 178 percent from the previous year The top five major importers of pigs, from more or less, were Spain (560,000 tonnes, 26 per cent), Germany (520,000 tonnes, 25 per cent), the United States (420,000 tonnes, 20 per cent), Denmark (320,000 tonnes, 15 per cent) and the Netherlands (290,000 tonnes, 14 per cent) ruQ On the other hand, China's exports in 2019 decreased significantly, with annual exports of 210,000 tons, down 36.17% YoY, followed by Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, Singapore and the Philippines ruQ" due to stable feed costs, pig prices continue dyed high, in 2019 for the whole year, the first profit of 951 yuan, the fourth quarter of the first profit is more than 2000 yuan, reached the highest level in history Zhou Lin said ruQ overseas outbreak will affect pork imports, production and marketing gap or pig prices continue to be high
ruQ Although the fourth quarter of 2019 pig production capacity showed a rising trend, but due to excessive decline in pig production capacity in the previous period, pork production capacity in 2020 will still be reduced from the previous year Zhou Lin said that at the current rate of recovery of pig production capacity, pig production capacity by the end of 2020 can basically return to near-normal levels ruQ Specifically, pork production in 2020 is expected to be 39.34 million tons , a decrease of 7.5% over the previous year, pig output is expected to reach 501.49 million head, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year, in the short term, with pigs After the recovery of production capacity, pork prices fell back to reasonable levels, pork consumption will return to near-normal levels, is expected to 2020 pork consumption of 42.06 million tons , down 5.6% YoY, per capita pork consumption of 29.9 kg, down 5.9% YoY ruQ industry analysts pointed out that if pork production in 2020 reached 39.34 million tons, will be nearly 10 million tons less than normal year production, the lowest output in the next 10 years China's top five pork importers last year, West Germany's Meitanho, were the hardest hit by the outbreak With supply so tight, pork prices may still run high ruQ However, the central government has always attached great importance to maintaining the stability of pork market prices Hu Chunhua, vice-premier in charge of agriculture and poverty alleviation, attended the "National Agricultural Rural System To Respond to The New Coronary Virus Infection Pneumonia Outbreak Video Dispatch Conference" in Beijing, pointing out that we should speed up the resumption of pig production, ensure the completion of the established goals, and urgently solve the problem of poor transportation of poultry seedlings, piglets, feed and so on, and promote the healthy development of the aquaculture industry ruQ at the same time, the April 17 meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee stressed that agricultural production and important food supplies to ensure stable prices, strengthen the agricultural base In the first four days (14-17), Vice Premier Hu Chunhua left Beijing to supervise spring farming and pig production on the ground On-site review of the production situation in Guangdong and Hunan, and stressed that we should unswervingly speed up the resumption of pig production, implement various support policies, continue to strengthen the prevention and control of swine fever in Africa, and strive to promote new production capacity to put into operation, to ensure the supply of pork market ruQ" As of March 31, a total of 6 outbreaks were reported across the country, a total of 534 pigs were culled, and the overall situation of the outbreak has slowed down, which is very favorable to the accelerated recovery of current pig production In April this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, animal husbandry and veterinary department of the relevant person in charge of the media RuQ Zhou Lin said pig production capacity will resume quickly as pig farming scales up It is expected to return to the year-round level by the end of 2021 and then show steady growth, with pork production increasing by 18.6% and annual growth of 1.9% over the next 10 years compared with 2020, with pork production increasing by 13.7% (57.28 million tons) in the medium term and 18.6% (59.72 million tons) in the end of 2029 However, in terms of imports and exports, net imports will remain at around 1 million to 1.2 million tons ruQ "but pig production is also facing more uncertainties, " Zhou Lin said, the first is the impact of the new crown outbreak The outbreak will affect the slaughter, logistics and port opening of pigs in exporting countries, as well as the price of feed raw materials and the cost of breeding, which ultimately affects the price of pork It is reported that many domestic feed enterprises have issued a price increase notice ruQ on the other hand, the outbreak will have a significant impact on the resumption of domestic production and consumption, according to incomplete statistics January-February comprehensive loss rate of about 95%, which has a greater impact on pork consumption ruQ The second is the effects of African swine fever African swine fever still lacks relevant vaccines, and although many large-scale farming enterprises have been successful and sustained, biosecurity levels have increased and the risk of outbreaks is relatively small, the outbreak will still affect the effectiveness of small-scale enterprises and restocking in high-risk areas First of all, piglets, pig breeding circulation will bring a certain risk of disease, small and medium-sized household capacity recovery time, speed and scale will be affected; ruQ