Price trend forecast of Guangdong fish meal in June

Introduction: for the price of Guangdong fish meal in June, according to the cost of most purchasers, we hope that the price of fish meal with low protein (60% - 62.99% protein) can be maintained at ￥ 5600-5800 / T; the price of normal FAQ fish meal with more than 63% protein can be maintained at ￥ 5800 - ￥ 6000 / T; the price of high protein fish meal with super steam drying can be maintained at ￥ 6000 - ￥ 6300 / T We think that the price positioning mainly considers the supply-demand relationship and the supplier's purchase cost The futures price of Gaolong in June is set at ￥ 5800 / ton (63% protein, FAQ fish meal), while the futures price of July is set at ￥ 5400 / ton, mainly based on the purchase cost of most suppliers, plus reasonable profits and the current price of Peru market All of these are based on the premise that Gaolong company will guarantee the delivery and not delay the factory production After Gaolong company started to sell futures, it received orders from many users and remitted deposits in time, which shows that our price is reasonable and our reputation is recognized and supported by the majority of users First, look at the Peruvian Market: in the past week or two, Peruvian fishing volume has increased greatly, and the price has dropped sharply Last week, the lowest transaction price was $530 / ton Fas (normal protein) We also bought 2000 tons ($530 / ton) to be loaded on the M / V "Hai An Cheng" ship which arrived on May 31 Because some Peruvian suppliers met last week and set the lowest price at $550 / ton FAS, it is estimated that the price of $530 / ton will be difficult in the near future At present, Peru's unsold inventory is up to 100000 tons If it is banned on June 1, 100000 tons will soon be sold out; if it is not banned, and there are 500000 tons of fishing per week, Peru's inventory will increase; if there is not enough buying, the market may still decline 2 From the perspective of the domestic market: the decline of the futures market is obvious to all, but it will not have a great impact on the spot market The reasons are as follows: (1) at present, the demand is booming, the feed factory needs the spot, and the far water of the futures cannot save the near fire (2) the stock of spot goods is dropping sharply At present, the total amount of each port is about 30000-40000 tons, which can only maintain the domestic demand for about half a month New goods can only be picked up around June 20 at the earliest (3) at present, the quality of the stock at each port is much better than that of the new goods At present, the spot price of 6000 yuan / ton reported at Shanghai port is close to the cost of most of the suppliers (about 5800 yuan / ton, 61% - 63% protein) arriving in June, and there is not much room for decline (4) Peru shipped about 150000 tons of fish meal to China in May, and most of the ships arrived in China from June 10 to 25 Although it will put pressure on the market, they are scattered to China's ports from south to north If there is a strong demand, the price of 5800 yuan / ton of new goods may also stand (5) although the price of 5400 yuan / ton is quoted by many suppliers, only thunder is heard and no rain is seen The fastest ship to be shipped is our M / V "Hai An Cheng" and M / V "new castle city" The time of arrival in China is July, and the pick-up may be to the end of July and the beginning of August It will not pose a great threat to the spot goods or even the new goods arriving in June We believe that the futures price must follow the Peruvian market The spot price is mainly determined by the current supply and demand relationship of the domestic market, but also affected by the futures price When the current commodity price is higher than the spot price, if other factors remain unchanged, the spot price will inevitably rise; when the futures price is lower than the spot price, if the supply and demand are balanced, the price will remain unchanged; when the supply exceeds the demand, the price will inevitably fall; when the supply exceeds the demand, the price will still have room to rise despite the low futures price Of course, this refers to other factors unchanged.