Price analysis of corn in Shandong Province

Introduction: According to the information provided by Weihai peanut wholesale market, in the first quarter of this year, the market price of corn in Shandong continued to maintain a slight upward trend, and the market generally operated well Especially since late March, the price of corn in Shandong Province has risen significantly By the beginning of April, the transaction price of corn in Shandong Province reached about 1020 yuan / ton, up 2.9% over the same period last month Industry analysts believe that in the future, the price of corn market in Shandong Province may continue to fluctuate around the price level of about 1000 yuan / ton It is expected that there will be a greater opportunity to increase, but neither the increase nor the decrease will be too large The main reasons for the continuous rise of corn market price in Shandong Province in the first quarter are as follows: 1 Since the end of last year, the corn consumption in Shandong Province has increased substantially, which has driven the market price to rise again In late December last year, an alcohol production enterprise in Jining, Shandong Province, which digested 1.7 million tons of corn annually, put into operation, and gradually increased the number of corn purchases At present, the purchase area has spread to most parts of the province, and expanded to Henan, Hebei and northeast regions At the same time, in the process of corn price rising, farmers are reluctant to sell corn, and the enthusiasm of selling corn is lower than the previous year In addition, after the price of corn increased, the state-owned grain sector also showed reluctance to sell and increased procurement JIT 2 According to the relevant information, it is predicted that in 2002, the corn planting area in Shandong Province will be basically stable, the increase or decrease will not be large, the area will still be maintained at 36-37 million mu, and the total output will not change greatly However, in recent years, Shandong Province has vigorously developed animal husbandry, and the consumption level of corn is constantly improving At present, the main factors that benefit the corn production in Shandong Province are that the cost of corn planting in grain, cotton, oil and other crops is relatively low, and the benefit is relatively high In 2001, the price of cotton and peanut was depressed (the wholesale price of peanut kernel was only about 3 yuan per kilogram on January 25 this year), the price of wheat was relatively low (the wholesale price of wheat was about 1.1 yuan per kilogram on January 25 this year), and the market was not good, while the sales price of corn was firm in the first three quarters of last year, and only by the end of the year did it fall back (the wholesale price of corn on January 25 this year The price is still 1.0-1.2 yuan per kilogram The disadvantageous factor for corn production in Shandong Province is that after China's accession to the WTO, corn export subsidies have been cancelled, the original balance of supply and demand in the market has been broken, and the price of corn has fallen Moreover, the price of corn seeds in Shandong this year has doubled compared with that in previous years, and the main varieties (Ludan 50, Nongda 108, etc.) have increased from about 4 yuan per kilogram in previous years to over 8 yuan, which has significantly increased the production cost The inertia of vegetable development also has a certain impact on corn The expansion of the area of traditional Chinese medicine and forage grass will also compete with corn for land In addition, meteorological experts predict that this year's El Nino phenomenon will once again affect China, which is likely to cause high temperature and drought in the northern region If so, it will greatly affect the corn yield and total yield in Shandong Province, and even reduce the harvest area JIT 3 Driven by the rising price of corn in domestic production and marketing areas, the market price of corn in Shandong Province is also rising Corn can be said to be one of the few varieties that have kept rising in the grain and oil market since this year Among them, the wholesale price of second-class (the same below) corn in Zhengzhou market rose from 1013.33 yuan / ton in January to 1024 yuan / ton in March, an increase of 1.04%; the wholesale price of second-class corn in Dalian market rose from 893.33 yuan in January / ton rose to 900 yuan / ton in March, an increase of 0.74%; Weihai corn market price rose from 970 yuan / ton in January to 996 yuan / ton in March, an increase of 2.61%; Henan corn market price rose from 1000 yuan / ton in January to 1004 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.4%; Fuzhou Market The wholesale price of second-class corn rose from 1170 yuan / ton in January to 1178 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.68%; the price of corn in Tianjin market rose from 850 yuan / ton in January to 952.5 yuan / ton in March, an increase of 10.76%; the price of corn in Shandong market rose from 945 yuan / ton in January to 1 in March The market price of corn in Jilin province increased from 940 yuan / ton in January to 987.5 yuan / ton in March, an increase of 4.81% Therefore, it is not difficult to see that in the first quarter of this year, the market price of corn from the south to the north in China has been rising four times JIT for the later price trend of corn market in Shandong Province, the insiders analyzed that the favorable factors are on the one hand, the accelerated development of feed industry in Shandong Province, the increasing demand for corn; on the other hand, the trend of domestic corn market price is likely to show a steady upward trend, which is bound to affect the trend of corn market price in Shandong Province However, from the perspective of the domestic environment, the rising pressure of corn in the later period is still great, the most prominent one is the impact of China's accession to the WTO on the corn market This year, the import tariff quota of corn in China will reach 5.85 million tons, so the market suppliers, especially the dealers of large groups, are very cautious about this; second, the impact of competitive sales in the grain market on the corn market can not be ignored; third The export of corn is still not very active Although China's corn export increased significantly in February, with a total of 770000 tons of corn exported in the whole month, an increase of 540000 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of about 20000 tons compared with the same period in 2001, China's cumulative export of corn from January to February this year was 1 million tons, a decrease of 360000 tons compared with the same period last year, so the export of corn still decreased It is expected that in the future, the market price of corn in Shandong Province will rise steadily, but the range will not be too large JiT