Preliminary analysis of the impact of SARS on grain market

Introduction: the recent SARS may have a greater impact on the food market The recent SARS may have a greater impact on the food market, causing food prices to fluctuate This impact is more obvious in the sales areas, especially in the tourism areas From the current situation, its impact is mainly reflected in the following aspects: 5ed First, "SARS" affects the consumption of tourist cities 5ed For example, Guilin receives more than 10 million tourists a year If each tourist stays for three days and consumes 0.3KG of food per day, it consumes more than 3000 tons of food per year "May Day" is the golden season of tourism Tens of thousands of tourists come to Guangxi In order to avoid the spread of SARS, the State Council has recently announced the suspension of "May Day" long holiday, so "SARS" has a great impact on tourism, as well as the grain sales in tourism areas Due to the decrease of tourists, the consumption of meat products such as pork and poultry will be correspondingly reduced, which will cause the sales of pork and poultry to be sluggish and the price to fall 5ed 2 The impact of SARS on feed consumption5ed according to relevant news, Hong Kong research found that "SARS" may be related to livestock and poultry epidemics At the same time, it is speculated that the source of SARS is from pigs, and some are from poultry If so, the breeding industry will suffer a huge impact, while the decline of the breeding industry According to relevant department news, "SARS" The losses to the breeding industry are still difficult to count Due to SARS, the export of chicken, pork and other products in China has been completely stopped, and the products in the agricultural trade market have also been shunned by consumers The turnover of catering industry in major cities has been greatly reduced The related feed industry has also felt the impact It is understood that 90% of the soybean meal production is used in the feed industry, while the feed for pigs and chickens accounts for more than 70% of the total feed industry Therefore, "SARS" will directly lead to the decline of feed industry production, and thus lead to a comprehensive decline in demand for corn, soybean, soybean meal and so on Therefore, this kind of influence is very big, which is a major blow to the market of corn, soybean and so on 5ed Third, SARS affects market consumption psychology At present, the masses have been quite frightened of SARS If the source of SARS really comes from pigs or poultry, the consumption of pork and poultry will drop in a straight line Moreover, SARS is very easy to spread in public places, which will hit people's consumption directly in catering, thus affecting the consumption of meat food and the development of breeding industry 5ed Fourth, SARS induced the overall decline of agricultural products futures Dalian soybean meal, driven by the recent strong rise in spot price, last week's rising trend continued for a week, and created an annual peak of soybean meal in Monday's trading, but the short-term rapid rise after the opening did not effectively maintain, on the contrary, there was a rapid decline in the afternoon, and a large number of sell-off orders sealed the period price on the drop stop board, and soybean took the lead in the fall After that, soybean meal fell and stopped one after another, and the wheat market also fell sharply 5ed 5 SARS may pose a threat to the rapid growth of domestic economy According to foreign reports, if SARS, a flu like disease, is not contained, China's strong demand for commodities will be seriously affected With a population of 1.3 billion, China has a huge impact on the world Affected by the disease, China's tourism, export and domestic demand will be greatly affected, so in the second quarter, the domestic economic growth may not have the same high growth rate as 9.9% in the first quarter 5Ed