Prediction of the development trend of the world pork market next year

Introduction: According to the prediction of experts from the U.S Department of agriculture, the pork production and import volume of EU countries will achieve double growth in 2003; the U.S pork production will decrease, but the export volume will continue to rise; although Japan implements protection tariffs, the pork import volume will still reach a record high; the improvement of Russia's economic situation will further stimulate the consumption and import of pork; the pork export of Brazil and Canada The growth rate will slow down The development trend of the world pork market will present the following characteristics: due to the strong demand, the pork trade is expected to rise sharply, and the total export volume will reach a record 3.9 million tons, which is expected to increase by 2% over this year's export volume U.S - U.S pork production next year is likely to fall by 2% from 2002 levels due to rising feed prices and concerns about excess pork production However, in order to make full use of the favorable opportunity of strong demand for pork in the international market, U.S exports will reach a historical record of 726000 tons Japan and Mexico will still be the main importers of US pork, accounting for 50% and 22% of US pork exports, respectively Brazil - following this year's sharp increase in pork exports, export growth will fall to 8% in 2003 The low cost of production and the huge capacity of slaughterhouse will make it possible for Brazil to become a major exporter of pork in the international market The Brazilian government will allocate $3 million from its budget next year to stimulate exports and access to non-traditional markets However, due to the high feed price, it is expected to have a certain inhibitory effect on Brazilian pork export Russia is the main importer of frozen meat in Brazil Canada - 2003 will be Canada's ninth year of sustained growth in pork exports, which are expected to reach 815000 tons In 1999, when some of Canada's surplus meat was sold to foreign markets, domestic pork production began to be very active In 2003, Canada is likely to replace the United States as the world's largest pork exporter Nearly 60% of Canadian pork exports go to the United States In addition, Canada exports 20% of live piglets EU - due to the foot-and-mouth disease, EU pork exports fell sharply in 2001 This year, the export of pork began to decline and pick up It is expected that it will continue to pick up next year The total export volume will reach 1.3 million tons, an increase of 2% over the total export volume in 2002 The number of pigs on hand in the EU will be reduced in 2003 Given that pork consumption will remain at the current level, EU countries will not increase pork imports next year, and a small increase in their pork production will be used for exports Russia - it is expected to import 710000 tons of pork in 2003, an increase of 1% over the previous year In the country's pork import, the main actor will be the cheap quantitative packaging of meat With the devaluation of the currency at the beginning of this year, Brazil replaced the United States and dominated the Russian pork market Brazil accounts for nearly 50% of Russia's total imports of pork Due to the economic recovery and stable production of pig industry, the pork consumption of Russia in 2003 is expected to continue to increase for three consecutive years, with an increase of 5% The economic crisis of the pig industry in Russia reached the bottom in 2000 Since then, the government has increased investment and gradually recovered production Because Russia has a large number of cheap feed, which provides convenient conditions for the development of pig industry, the number of piglets in the pig farm is increasing year by year Poland - pork has always been popular in Poland Due to low feed prices, expansion of slaughterhouse production capacity and increased state intervention in the domestic market, Polish pork production is expected to increase in 2003, and the per capita consumption of pork is expected to increase from 38 kg last year to 39 kg this year Despite the expansion of domestic pork production, Poland's pork imports will still increase this year, stimulated by the current EU tariff free quota of 34500 tons Due to the increase of domestic production and the government's decision to issue export subsidies, Poland will also increase its exports of pork and pork products this year and next Romania - the government decided to extend until the end of this year the validity of a 20% reduction in import tariffs on fresh, chilled and frozen viscera of pigs, cattle and sheep The decision was explained by the authorities that domestic production can only meet half of the demand for such products, and the insufficient part needs to be solved by import In recent years, the pig industry in Romania has developed rapidly By the end of May this year, the number of pigs on hand has increased by 6.4% over the same period last year In the import of Romanian pork, the quantitative packaging meat and pig viscera for further processing account for a large proportion In order to prevent the inflow of infectious diseases, Romania's newly adopted law stipulates that the import of cattle, sheep and pigs' viscera shall be accompanied by a certificate of no specific dangerous substance (SRM) Japan - due to the reduction of the number of pigs on hand, Japan's pork production is on the decline From 1992 to 2001, the number of fattening pigs in Japan decreased by 1 / 3, while the consumption of pork increased year by year It is expected that the volume of pork imports in 2003 will be the highest ever, reaching 1.2 million tons Japan's protective tariff introduced in August will be implemented until the end of March next year, but it is not expected to have a substantial impact on foreign supplies Foreign pork supply is expected to continue to increase next year, given the concerns of Japanese consumers about the discovery of "mad cow disease" in Japan and the frequent disputes over illegal trademarks of Japanese products (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: