Poultry production and market prospect in the fourth quarter of China

Introduction: (1) poultry production will continue to increase steadily According to the statistics of the national animal husbandry and veterinary station, the poultry production in China showed an increasing trend in the first, second and third quarters of 2002, while the fourth quarter was the peak period of poultry consumption, and poultry producers will seize the opportunity to increase the poultry production properly Therefore, it can be predicted that the continuous and stable increase of poultry production in the whole year is basically a foregone conclusion, and the growth rate of poultry production in the second half of this year is between 6-8% (2) the price of broilers continued to rise In the third quarter of 2002, affected by the price rise in chicken producing areas, the price of broilers began to rise In September, the average price of broilers in various regions in China was 2.20 yuan / chicken, 12.24% higher than that in June, but 2.65% lower than that in the same period last year With the coming of winter, the consumption of chicken by urban residents in China has increased, and the price of chicken has risen, which will drive the price of broilers to rise, especially the arrival of consumption peak on New Year's day and Spring Festival In the fourth quarter, the enthusiasm of broilers to supplement the market is high, the demand for broilers has increased, and the price of broilers may rise slightly (3) there is little room for the world poultry price to recover 1 The US poultry price will continue to fall In the second quarter of 2002, poultry production in the United States was 3.77 million tons, an increase of 3.30% over the same period of last year; in the third quarter, poultry production in the United States was about 3.7195 million tons, an increase of 3.40% over the same period of last year; it is expected that the growth rate of poultry production in the fourth quarter of 2002 will slow down, but it will still increase by about 0.70-1.00% over the same period of 2001 Since this year, the export situation of poultry and meat in the United States has been unfavorable In the second quarter, the export volume reached 508700 tons, a decrease of 20.00% over the same period last year First, due to trade friction with Russia, poultry exports to Russia in the first half of the year decreased by about 30.00% compared with the same period last year; second, poultry exports to Hong Kong, China and Japan were also unsatisfactory, showing a downward trend; only poultry exports to South Korea and Mexico showed a growth momentum With the settlement of the trade dispute between the United States and Russia, it is expected that the export of poultry in the second half of the year will increase to about 1.13 million tons, but it will still decrease by about 7.00% compared with the same period last year It can be seen that in the second half of 2002, due to the continuous increase of poultry production and the decrease of export volume, the domestic poultry price in the United States will maintain a low level 2 The price of poultry in EU will be depressed again The outbreak of BSE in Europe in 2001 once made the meat consumption of European countries shift from beef to poultry, which stimulated the price and production of poultry However, with the gradual calm of BSE, beef consumption in the European market gradually picked up In the first half of 2002, due to the transition of EU poultry producers to estimate the impact of BSE, they competed to expand the scale of poultry production, resulting in oversupply and low prices In addition, since this year, the export of poultry and meat in EU countries has fluctuated, while the import has continued to increase In the first half of 2002, European Union's import of saltwater chicken to Brazil and Thailand maintained the momentum of continuous growth Although European Commission put saltwater chicken into the category of frozen chicken in June 2002, in order to increase import tariffs, but from the current situation, this is not enough to reduce the import of poultry meat Moreover, the signing of the "double zero agreement" will also promote the export of poultry meat from the ten central and Eastern European countries (Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) to the EU In 2002, EU poultry exports decreased slightly As the "medroxyprogesteron acetate" (MPA) event, the frozen whole chicken in France was restricted by the main importing country, the United Arab Emirates on August 1, Brazil took the opportunity to quickly replace France, occupying the poultry market of the United Arab Emirates, the European Union poultry meat (mostly German poultry meat) only during the poultry trade dispute between the United States and Russia, It partially replaced American poultry and exported a small amount to Russia As the MPA storm subsides, the United Emirates of Saudi Arabia will lift the ban on EU poultry, but the market share that will be occupied by Brazil will be hard to regain Therefore, in the second half of the year, the price of poultry in the EU market is expected to remain low under the circumstances of increased production and unfavorable export 3 The price of Japanese chicken is expected to get out of the trough Since this year, the price of Japanese chicken has been in a continuous downturn, once falling to the bottom This is mainly due to the following reasons: (1) influenced by the world cup in Korea and Japan, Japanese chicken importers mistakenly estimated the situation and blindly imported a large amount of chicken (2) The outbreak of mad cow disease reduced the consumption of beef, increased the consumption of pork and chicken, and increased the stock of chicken (3) The occurrence of the event that Japanese commercial houses disguised the origin identification made it difficult for consumers to distinguish between local chicken and imported chicken The consumption quantity decreased, and the wholesale price of imported chicken also decreased accordingly Since the second half of the year, after a long period of weakness and depression in the Japanese chicken market, consumption has gradually picked up and market prices have recovered, especially wholesale prices are bottoming out This is mainly due to: (1) in the first half of the year, Japan imported chicken from the United States and China, found that some items did not meet the requirements of health and quarantine, and successively stopped importing chicken from the United States and China (2) In September, Brazil's exports of poultry meat to Japan decreased sharply, and Japanese chicken stocks fell (3) In September, all kinds of schools in Japan started school Chicken has always been the main raw material for student meals, and the demand for chicken has increased significantly (4) the export situation of poultry meat in China is not optimistic In 2002, the export of poultry meat in China was restricted by Japan, Russia, Switzerland and other countries Although the ban of Russia and Switzerland has been lifted, the restrictions of Japan continue Because the export of poultry meat to Japan accounts for 40% - 60% of the total export, Japan has a great influence on the export of poultry meat in China In the first half of this year, China actively expanded the export markets of poultry meat in Russia, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc., and achieved good results, but it still could not make up for the impact on Japan's export decline The export of poultry meat was far below the level of the same period last year (V) the price of domestic chicken will rise seasonally Judging from the current situation, the export of poultry meat from China to Japan is likely to rebound slightly, and the peak consumption of domestic poultry meat will also come In addition, the price has experienced a long period of downturn, and it is expected that the price of domestic poultry meat will rise seasonally in the fourth quarter However, the increase in the price of broilers in the third quarter shows that there are many producers making up the market, and the supply of poultry market is relatively sufficient In addition, the listing of autumn grain has an impact on the cost of feed The recovery of poultry price will not be too large, and may fluctuate at the current level (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: